The invasion of Iraq in 2003 involved 300K coalition forces. It was supported by Shiites and Kurds, who represent 80% of the population. If Ukrainians oppose Russian forces, the Russians are gonna lose far more than the 5000 dead we lost in Iraq.
If Ukrainians oppose Russian forces, the Russians are gonna lose far more than the 5000 dead we lost in Iraq.
You are correct, but Putin doesn't care. His reference point regarding casualties is WWII. He learned well the Stalinist model of warfare.
5.56mm
Agreed: As I’ve posted elsewhere, if this thing really heats up / the Ukrainians fight, I think Russia’s “pain level” breaks at around 50,00 fatal casualties, particularly if the most extreme (or desperate?) of the Nationalists ally with the Tartars and Chechnians, thereby giving Russia even more reason to fight on. Since I expect a 10:1 kill ratio in favor of the Russians, we are basically looking at half a million dead Ukrainians, not to mention a ravaged country. That’s pretty grim stuff, and whether the Ukraine is willing to fight that hard is questionable. However, the casualties would likely occur over substantial time, and as awful as those casualties sound, they are not even remotely close to the % of the population killed in Ukraine in WW2.
I’ve guessed elsewhere that perhaps 5 million Ukranians would actually be capable of resisting the Russians in some way. So, I try to put myself in those shoes: A 10% chance I am killed, and a certainty friends and/ or family members will be killed & my livelyhood probably destroyed, in return for finally being independent. (I don’t really think the Nationalists have much use for the EU, either, if the EU doesn’t support them in a big way.)
Do I fight? Deep breath... Yes. But, I’m not Ukrainian, so I can’t REALLY put myself in those shoes.