Conger
Merkley will not get more than 50% in the general election. But, the Dems will put up a fake libertarian candidate. The fake libertarian will suck enough votes along with the standard dem vote fraud to get Merkley a win.
A lot lot of Undecided voters. Historically, Undecideds go for the challenger. If there is no Libertarian candidate, and ObamaCare continues to be a train wreck in November, then there is a chance for the GOP candidate.