It is too early to say. What I do know:
1)They seized key buildings of all 3 major cities bordering Russia on April 6/7.
2)They are armed.
3)They are calling for Putin to save them from ‘Kiev radicals’.
So, my assumption is that they probably are, although they could be genuine separatists. They did, after all, ransack some armories in the East.
Unlike you, I don’t believe in wildly convoluted conspiracy theories. Not until there is beyond reasonable doubt.
What's so wildly convoluted about Putin using covert funding and infiltrators to help overthrow the government in Ukraine.