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Investment & Finance Thread (Apr. 20 edition)
Daily investment & finance thread ^ | 04/20/2014 | Freeper Investors

Posted on 04/20/2014 1:14:39 PM PDT by expat_panama

This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here and tomorrow morning we'll go on with our--

 

Open invitation continues always for idea-input for the thread, this being a joint effort works well.   Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket.

Here's what others are saying about what's going on--

Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: April 21 - 25

Investing.com - Gold prices ended the week sharply lower on Thursday, falling below the $1,300 level as indications that the U.S. economic recovery is progressing dampened safe haven demand for the precious metal.

 Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: April 21 - 25Gold ends week below $1,300 level on stronger U.S. economic outlook

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery ended Thursday’s session at $1,294.90 an ounce. The precious metal ended the week down 2.34%. The Comex was closed for Good Friday.

Gold came under pressure after upbeat U.S. data on manufacturing and employment pointed to underlying strength in the economy.

The Labor Department reported the number of people filing for unemployment benefits edged up to 304,000, below analysts’ forecasts and not far from the six-and-a-half year low of 300,000 touched the previous week.  [more here]

Stocks Rebound After Nasdaq Selloff

By Philip Springer on April 18, 2014

U.S. stocks ended a holiday-shortened week with the Standard & Poor’s 500 making its biggest weekly gain in nine months. For the four days, the S&P 500 added 2.7 percent and both the Dow Jones industrial average and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.4 percent.

The weekly result is worth noting because it marks a strong turnaround after six weeks of turmoil that primarily affected overpriced information technology, biotechnology and other issues, mostly in the Nasdaq Composite.

By the end of last week, the bursting of that bubble was showing an increasing tendency for the selling to spread to the broad market. That hasn’t happened, at least not yet. In its reversal from an oversold condition, the market benefited from several developments... [more here]

--and IBD still hasn't announced this correction's 'follow-thru-day', although fwiw if we get more consolidation it might be as early as Tuesday...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: financial; goldbugs; hr2847; randsconcerntrolls; stockmarket; wallstreet
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
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1 posted on 04/20/2014 1:14:39 PM PDT by expat_panama
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; Aquamarine; Archie Bunker on steroids; ...

Show prep for tomorrow morning ping.

2 posted on 04/20/2014 1:17:48 PM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Well, looks like one should NOT buy gold stocks or gold. Poised for a fall, isn’t it?


3 posted on 04/20/2014 3:32:26 PM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

I’m hanging on to what I have. IF a major correction occurs then things may change faster than I can key in a trade. I hold onto a core.


4 posted on 04/20/2014 4:36:15 PM PDT by BipolarBob
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To: expat_panama

Asian markets up a bit.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/world-indexes/asia-pacific/


5 posted on 04/20/2014 4:38:57 PM PDT by abb
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; Aquamarine; Archie Bunker on steroids; ...

Happy New Week everyone, beginning with stock futures mixed/up and metals futures plunging big time (full map here).  Only econ report today is Leading Indicators --what can that tell us about investing if investing trends is one of the leading indicators?   Heads-up topics:

Asian stocks subdued on Ukraine caution, dollar firms vs. yen Reuters - 10 hours ago TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stock markets were subdued on Monday, as tensions in Ukraine kept investors cautious amid an absence of catalysts as several markets remained closed for the Easter holiday.
Japan posts largest annual trade deficit on record  
It's Final -- Corn Ethanol Is Of No Use Forbes - 12:12am OK, can we please stop pretending biofuel made from corn is helping the planet and the environment? With huge subsidies for ethanol in gasoline, with all States now selling gasoline having some ethanol blend, and a general misconception that these ...
Economists expect US to shake off winter slowdown CNBC.com - 2 hours ago This winter's brutal weather took a toll on sales growth for U.S. businesses, according to a survey of economists released Monday.
Prosecutors' Long Winning Streak on Insider Trading Could Soon Be Over Businessweek - an hour ago.   For months now the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, Preet Bharara, has been boasting of his office's perfect record on insider-trading convictions and guilty pleas, which now stands at 80-0.
Delete, avoid and hang up on spring scams With spring here, con artists become more active. Know how to spot them and avoid losing money. USA TODAY

6 posted on 04/21/2014 4:36:14 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

7 posted on 04/21/2014 4:56:24 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: expat_panama

KCG: THE LOOK…April 20th, 2014

U.S. stock-index futures were little changed, after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index posted its
biggest weekly gain since July, amid corporate-earnings reports.

Halliburton Co. climbed 1 percent in early New York trading after forecasting profit growth for the second quarter. Barrick Gold Corp. and Newmont Mining Corp. advanced after people with the knowledge of the matter said talks to merge the two companies could be revived. Athenahealth Inc. fell 1.8 percent
after reporting quarterly earnings that missed projections.

Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in June rose 0.2 percent to 1,861.2 at 7:43 a.m. in New York today. Dow Jones Industrial Average contracts added 29 points, or 0.2 percent, to 16,372.

“I suspect most companies are going to raise guidance for the upcoming quarters thanks to the pumped up demand and the spring thrall,” Patrick Spencer, who helps oversee more than $100 billion as head of equity sales at Robert W. Baird & Co. in London, said in a phone interview. “The economy remains in a
sweet spot. I’m very optimistic for this year.”

The S&P 500 jumped 2.7 percent last week, rebounding from the previous week’s technology-led selloff, as corporate earnings from Morgan Stanley to Citigroup Inc. and Yahoo! Inc. surpassed estimates. The gauge is 1.4 percent away from its record high reached April 2. U.S. equity markets were closed on
April 18 for the Good Friday holiday.

European stocks posted a weekly gain as better-than-estimated U.S. data bolstered investor
confidence the economic recovery is on course, outweighing an escalation in the crisis in eastern Ukraine.

UniCredit SpA rose 4 percent and Banco Popolare SC advanced 6.6 percent after Berenberg Bank said Italian lenders will benefit the most if the rebound in the European economy continues. Tesco Plc added 3.1 percent after reporting trading profit that beat estimates. Afren Plc helped a gauge of oil-and-gas companies post the best performance among industry groups. ASML Holding NV tumbled 7 percent after forecasting second-quarter sales that trailed analysts’ projections.

The Europe Stoxx 600 Index added 1.1 percent to 332.43 in the holiday-shortened week. The benchmark gauge has climbed in four of the last five weeks and increased 1.3 percent in 2014.

• Support:1857, 1850, 1837
• Resistance:1870, 1876, 1889

It’s becoming much harder for companies to close initial public offerings.

Moelis & Co. and Weibo Corp. were among six issuers seeking $100 million or more in the U.S. that had to accept less than they had anticipated, data compiled by Bloomberg Show. Only two companies last week raised an amount that was within the range they expected.
On average, the eight companies priced their offerings at 12 percent below the mid-point of their marketed range, the CHART OF THE DAY shows. That’s the biggest discount since the third week of October, after the U.S. government shut down following a budget impasse, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Almost $18 billion of newly issued shares have flooded the U.S. market in 2014 — from midpriced-hotel chain La Quinta Holdings Inc. to King Digital Entertainment Plc, the maker of Candy Crush. This 60 percent jump in supply from the same time last year, coupled with a selloff in risky assets, explains the difficulty late-comers have had, according to Larry Haverty of Gamco Investors Inc.
“Investors have said more or less ‘enough’,” said Haverty, whose firm in Rye, New York oversees $46 billion in assets. “If you look at IPOs over the last three or four months, they’ve been very richly priced. It’s not necessarily closing the IPO window, but it’s a brief pause.”
While 167 companies are still on tap to raise $12 billion through U.S. IPOs, the calendar for the rest of April looks bare with only two issuers seeking less than $100 million combined, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
That doesn’t include Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which could file a prospectus for its IPO as soon as this month, people familiar with the matter have said. The share sale by China’s largest e-commerce company could be the biggest in over two years.


8 posted on 04/21/2014 5:31:52 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch
Our friends at PBS may be right if we assume massive policy shifts on the state and federal levels.   We've been having some progress at times in specific sectors but progress since for more 'house-cleaning' has seemed no better than spotty.   On unemployment, this is the part we can know for sure--

--and we can only hope PBS is right about the next four years.

9 posted on 04/21/2014 5:35:54 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: Wyatt's Torch
Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in June rose 0.2 percent...   ...The S&P 500 jumped 2.7 percent last week...

A lot of strong signs out there on big caps and this past week my behavior has had to conform to what I can see.  I've never really liked stodgy old dinosaurs much but we don't want to let our aesthetic comforts get in the way of earning a living and feeding our families...

10 posted on 04/21/2014 5:42:01 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: abb

tx abb, I needed that glimmer a nice news to greet me over my morning coffee today ;)


11 posted on 04/21/2014 5:43:36 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: BipolarBob
...change faster than I can key in a trade. I hold onto a core.

Same here.  Over the recent years we've been having a lot of choppy indecisive markets where so-called proven signals can suddenly find themselves 'disproved'.  For me it's been leaving my core just fine thank you.

12 posted on 04/21/2014 5:47:49 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
one should NOT buy gold stocks or gold. Poised for a fall, isn’t it?

That's what a lot of futures traders are saying.  Metals markets can yield far bigger rewards--

---but I kind of like roller coasters I know more about.

13 posted on 04/21/2014 5:59:27 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Gold shares dropped hard today.


14 posted on 04/21/2014 8:16:34 AM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

—and stocks are a bit on the upside. There are folks that know metals really well and make a fortune on short selling drops like today’s gold.


15 posted on 04/21/2014 9:50:32 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

They gold stocks dropped even more.


16 posted on 04/21/2014 10:52:03 AM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: expat_panama

NYSE MAC DESK MID-DAY MARKET UPDATE:

DOW 16,439 (+30 points), S&P500 1868 (+4 handles), Brent Crude $109.93/barrel (+$0.40), Gold $1,286.00/oz. (-$7.40)

MARKET DRIVERS: (Stocks are modestly higher in a very quiet session amid a round of generally positive earnings reports and a pair of upbeat economic data releases.)

• The Conference Board’s index of U.S. leading indicators rose by 0.8% in March – the largest increase in four months – topping consensus while providing an important sign that the U.S. economic expansion will strengthen following the harsh winter weather.
• The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s National Activity Index for March came in at 0.20 which was in-line with the Street’s consensus estimate.
• The Japanese trade deficit widened to ¥1.45 trillion yen, or about $14.1 billion in March. Exports climbed by just 1.8%, missing expectations for a 6.5% gain. Meanwhile, energy costs caused imports to jump 18.1%.
• On the earnings-front, Halliburton is trading at a new 52-week high after the company reported Q1 top and bottom-line digits that topped the Street’s consensus estimates.
• In addition, Advanced Micro Devices has rallied by 12%(!) after the semiconductor maker reported late Thursday Q1 adjusted EPS and revenue that exceeded expectations and provided an upbeat sales growth outlook for the current quarter.
• Just hit the tape: Meb Keflezighi won today’s Boston Marathon with an unofficial time of 2 hours, eight minutes and 36 seconds, the first American male to win the race since 1983.

Definitely one of the quietest trading sessions of the year, both in terms of trading volume and volatility as the major indices have been essentially range-bound since the opening bell. However, that does not mean we have nothing to report. Check it out:

1- If the Dow and S&P 500 can finish on the plus-side today, it would mark the first 5-day winning streak for the major indices of 2014.
2- Last week, the S&P 500 Index posted its biggest weekly gain since July, and at last look, the index was up 1.13% year-to-date.
3- This promises to be the busiest week of the quarter for earnings releases as 159 companies in the S&P and eleven Dow components are scheduled to report their Q1 digits between today and Friday.
4- Regarding earnings, more than 70% of the companies that have announced results so far this season have beaten analysts’ profit estimates. For the record, Street analysts project that earnings at S&P 500 companies increased 0.7% in Q1, while revenue climbed 2.6%, according to the average estimate.
… Moving on, the Dow has settled into a narrow trading range in an extremely quiet session, with just ~215M shares on the tape at this time… Internally, breadth is bullish across the board. Advancing Issues: 2410 / Declining Issues: 1789 — for a ratio of 1.3 to 1. New 52-Week Highs: 240/ New 52-Week Lows: 40… Meanwhile, in the trading pits the 10-year US Treasury has rallied, dropping the yield back below the 2.7% level, (2.698%), while gold is near a three-week low amid improved risk appetites and less of a reliance on the safe haven trade… By the way, in case you haven’t heard, the Zen-Master has begun to make his presence known in NYC as the Knicks canned Coach Woodson and all of his assistant coaches this morning. And to our friends up in Beantown celebrating Patriot’s Day today: “Boston Strong!” -— Have a tremendous day!

John’s Options Commentary: Option investors appear to be very optimistic today. With the SPYders (SPY) trading around $186.74, customers are paying roughly 35 cents for more than 97,000 May 192 calls. The transactions are opening and express a very bullish view of the markets over the next 4 weeks—we shall see! The Market Vectors Semi Fund or SMH also sees bullish flow today. With the ETF trading $45.08, a customer buys a 14,500-lot of Aug 50 calls for 37.5 cents. Investors have also bought the Aug 47 calls, as more than 4,700 contracts have changed hands so far today. The activity appears to be another bullish view, this time on the chip over the next 4 months. The Emerging Markets Fund (EEM) saw a bullish three-way spread trade earlier this morning. With the EEM trading $41.80, a 10,000-lot of Dec 35 puts was sold at $1.00 on the ETF to buy the Dec 42 - 46 (1X2) call ratio spread, 10,000 times. It looks as if the investor sold the puts to help finance the call spread. The Call Dec 42 calls traded at $2.45 while the 46 calls were sold (twice) at 90 cents. The net proceeds on the transaction was 35 cents. I looks as if the customer is looking for the EEM to climb to the $46.00 level by December expiration. The VIX is treading water today, up .06 to 13.42.

Sector Highlights brought to you by http://www.streetaccount.com/

• Energy outperforming with the S&P Energy Index +0.4%
o Brent crude higher by $0.40 to $109.93. Natural gas (0.6%).
o Oil services topping gains with the OSX +0.5%. HAL +3.1% in focus after beating earnings expectations. Analysts pointed to better LatAm performance and the company’s guidance for close to 20% NAM margins by the end of the year. BHI +1.9% and SLB +1.4% the other notable gainers. The former continuing its post-earnings rally from Thursday. NE (1.2%) was downgraded at Global Hunter Securities, which notes the uncertain contracting environment and limited near-term catalysts.
o Refiners outperforming, led by PSX +1.1% and TSO +1%
o E&Ps underperforming with the EPX (0.4%). NFX (1.4%), PXD (1.4%) and WTI (1.4%) leading the way lower. SM +1.2% the notable performer to the upside.

• Healthcare outperforming with the S&P Healthcare Index +0.4%
o Pharma outperforming with the DRG +0.7%. AZN +5.5% in focus amid reports that PFE +0.8% is considering a bid for the company. ENDP +2.2% and ACT +1.3% the other notable outperformers. Note the latter announced the acquisition of four products from AKRX +2.1%. TEVA (0.1%) underperforming after the Supreme Court denied its request for injunction on the Copaxone decision. Sell-side said a generic launch of Copaxone will create a new overhang for shares.
o Biotech mixed with the IBB +0.2% and NBI +0.2%. SRPT +42.5% the notable performer amid plans for Eteplirsen NDA by year-end. Barron’s also had a positive feature on the company, believing shares could double. The stock was upgraded at William Blair today. MNTA +6% another outperformer amid the Supreme Court’s decision in the TEVA Copaxone case.
o Other notable performers: ATHN (8.2%), which missed earnings expectations.

• Tech outperforming with the S&P Information Technology Index +0.3%
o Hardware largely outperforming with AAPL +0.8% . Bunch more previews hit today. Focus seems to be on issues such as June quarter guidance (expectations seem fairly lackluster), capital allocation, upcoming product cycle, China Mobile ramp. EMC +1.1% also reports on Wednesday. Some talk about low expectations heading into the print. Somewhat positive commentary on name out of Credit Suisse and BMO today.
o Semis outperforming with the SOX +0.5%. AMD +12.3% the standout following its beat and raise. High short base said to be contributing to outsized rally. MU +3.8% on the back of an upgrade at Drexel Hamilton. Semicap equipment narrowly mixed despite some concerns over collaboration between Samsung and Global Foundries in mass producing 14nm FinFET.
o Internet mixed following last week’s reprieve for momentum/high-valuation names. FB +2.1% one of the best performers. Company expected to reveal mobile-ad-network plans later this month. Stock also reiterated buy at both Goldman and CRT heading into earnings this week. GOOGL (0.9%) extending Thursday’s post-earnings pullback. Recall Street largely defended stock following softer results.

• Industrials in-line with the S&P Industrials Index +0.2%
o Multis underperforming. LII (3.8%) the laggard after reporting Q1 results. RBC (1%) and IR (0.9%) also underperforming. Upside limited with GE +0.2% and DOV +0.2% topping gains.
o Machinery underperforming. TEX (1.4%), OSK (1.3%) and JOY (1.1%) leading the space lower.
o Transports mostly lower. Airlines underperforming. Rising oil prices cited as a headwind. Note the space has sharply outperformed this year. ALK (1.5%), SKYW (1%) and DAL (1%) the notable performers. YRCW (1.2%) and ABFS +0.7% the notable performers among the trucking names. Railways outperforming, led by KSU +1% and NSC +0.4%. Note increased rail traffic. AAR reported rail traffic is up 33 of the past 38 weeks.
o Other notable performers: PWR (2.1%), USG (1.8%)

• Materials underperforming with the S&P Materials Index +0.1%
o Precious metals equities underperforming. Underlying assets lower today, with SLV (1.3%) leading GLD (0.7%) to the downside. Merger chatter between NEM +6.4% and ABX (2.6%) in focus. Latest reports indicate the issues stalling a merger include exactly what might be spun out. PAAS (3%) and SSRI (3%) the other notable performers.
o Industrial metals underperforming. CENX (3.8%) leading the aluminum space lower. Global miners underperforming with VALE (1.3%) and RIO (0.6%). Steel space mixed, with X (2.1%) underperforming while RS +1.1% tops gains. CLF (2.4%) the other notable performer among the industrial metals names.
o Other notable performers: OI (1.7%), EMN (1.3%)

• Financials underperforming with the S&P Financials Index +0.02%
o Banking group getting most of the attention. BKX +0.1%. Mixed overall performance with several regionals holding up better. STI +1.8% after reporting one of the strongest set of results for Q1. Street positive on lower expenses, better fees, strong credit quality and commercial loans. C (0.6%) the laggard among the money centers after outperforming last week when its results came in better than feared. Some sell-side notes out today discussing earnings season for the group. Focus has been on revenue headwinds, particularly in terms of mortgages. Lingering NIM pressure another widely discussed overhang. Also some attention on slowing improvement of credit trends. Trading held up a bit better than expected, while commercial loan growth another positive.


17 posted on 04/21/2014 10:52:31 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch
Thinking that in spite of all the 'great expectations' the big caps really aren't going anywhere new today..


18 posted on 04/21/2014 12:32:14 PM PDT by expat_panama
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; Aquamarine; Archie Bunker on steroids; ...

Good morning team, supposedly futures have metals soaring and stocks holding their own, but yesterday's market wrap-up saw the jump in very light trade.  Someone help me on this but imho it's not telling us we got more downside or more upside, but more like we still got no clear direction.  We got home-sales today though.  News from the usual reliable sources:


19 posted on 04/22/2014 5:19:20 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Everybody’s awfully quiet today.


20 posted on 04/22/2014 12:12:50 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin

—and this on a day that stocks seem to be pushing in to new highs. Like, the correction’s spent and we’re finally getting back into an uptrend...


21 posted on 04/22/2014 12:27:26 PM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Was the volume up enough to call it a follow thru ?


22 posted on 04/22/2014 2:10:29 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin
volume up enough to call it a follow thru ?

Just in: "Stocks Rise In Higher Volume; Gilead Up After Hours" but they don't mention what the outlook is.  Guess we got to wait for today's Market Wrap when it comes out.

23 posted on 04/22/2014 3:10:54 PM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Not yet

“But while the market rebound has been robust, there is still no clear confirmation of the current rally attempt. Market price and volume gains so far haven’t been strong enough to conclude that a shift in market direction has occurred.”


24 posted on 04/22/2014 4:27:42 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin
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To: expat_panama

A Closer Look at What S&P Sector Performance is Saying

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/closer-look-p-sector-performance-141515046.html

Food for thought.


25 posted on 04/22/2014 4:36:52 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin

a lot there, [bookmarking etfguide.com]


26 posted on 04/23/2014 4:46:31 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; Aquamarine; Archie Bunker on steroids; ...

A lot going on --believe it or not.  Sure, yesterday's uptick was in higher volume but the trade level was only higher than the nowhere level the day before --still quite a bit below average.  IBD TV says we're still in a correction.  This morning we're looking at metals up and stocks slightly off.

Steady PMIs, sluggish China puts brakes on European shares European shares edged down on Wednesday after three days of gains as data showing China's economy was still stuttering offset some broadly reassuring European purchasing manager index (PMI) numbers. Data compiler Markit's monthly PMI figures, seen as good indicators of future growth, showed that while France's economy was still a…

Existing home sales hit slowest pace since 2012. Why analysts aren't worried. (+ ... Christian Science Monitor - 3:03am The US housing market has cooled over the past several months, hampered by high mortgage rates and (like everything else), an unusually bad winter.

Why Even $1M May Not Be Enough for Retirement - Rodney Brooks, USAT

Census Bureau's Pattern of Falsifying Stats - John Crudele, New York Post

Eric Holder's Subprime Shakedown Destabilizes Banking - Editorial, IBD


27 posted on 04/23/2014 4:57:44 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin
Interesting article on inflation in today's article listing. Doesn't take too many rocket scientist to figure that one out. Just visit WMT on any successive weeks. Prices are consistently going up, or package sizes are shrinking.

I see this accelerating this year, and it will finally get some traction of the news outlets.

Doesn't do the DJIA much good to go up 5% during the year if the CPI is rising 5-10%. CPI isn't showing that yet, but look out. (or watch the government fudge the #'s)

28 posted on 04/23/2014 5:55:53 AM PDT by catfish1957 (Face it!!!! The government in DC is full of treasonous bastards)
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To: expat_panama
FUGLY new home sales numbers. Only a 9 standard deviation miss...


29 posted on 04/23/2014 7:09:32 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: expat_panama

DAVID EINHORN: ‘We Are Witnessing Our Second Tech Bubble In 15 Years’
david einhorn

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

David Einhorn.
Hedge-fund manager David Einhorn, who runs Greenlight Capital, says we’re seeing another tech bubble, CNBC reported, citing his fund’s quarterly investor letter.

“Now there is a clear consensus that we are witnessing our second tech bubble in 15 years. What is uncertain is how much further the bubble can expand, and what might pop it,” Einhorn wrote in the letter (PDF) posted online by @Levered_Hawkeye.

He continued: “In our view the current bubble is an echo of the previous tech bubble, but with fewer large capitalization stocks and much less public enthusiasm. Some indications that we are pretty far along include:

“The rejection of conventional valuation methods;
“Short-sellers forced to cover due to intolerable mark-to-market losses; and
“Huge first day IPO pops for companies that have done little more than use the right buzzwords to attract the right venture capital.”

In the letter, Einhorn writes that Greenlight is short some “high-flying momentum stocks” and “cool kid” companies that he’s dubbed the Bubble Basket.He explains that the basket approach allows him to make each individual short small in an effort to reduce risk.

The short positions weren’t disclosed in the letter.

However, the consensus on Wall Street continues to be that we are not in a tech bubble. Valuations aren’t as high, IPO activity isn’t as frenzied, and venture-capital funding isn’t exploding as it did a decade ago.

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs put out a note giving six reasons we’re not in a tech bubble.

Unfortunately, it’s only after a bubble bursts that we realize we were in a bubble.

Einhorn, famous for his prediction of the Lehman Brothers collapse, also detailed a number of stocks in the letter that he’s long as well as some positions he exited during the first quarter of this year.


30 posted on 04/23/2014 7:20:54 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: expat_panama
How not to invest (aka: FReepers saying the market is going to collapse as it rose 200%...)


31 posted on 04/23/2014 7:41:47 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch
...use this correction increase my position...  Brilliant! At this price, let's double it!

--which is exactly how I see the idea of buying 'on the dips'. 

Short term price swings by themselves are far too chaotic for market timing, but looking at longer term trends along with volume, econ reports, political sentiment, sector trends, we get much more of a fighting chance.  No way around it though, the pic does a darn good job of capturing a lot of common but avoidable market sentiment errors.  The good news is that ease of entry and exit of the marketplace tends to encourage resistance to that unfortunate chain of attitudes.

32 posted on 04/23/2014 8:42:03 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Loved that graph. Actually know some day trading idiots who pretty much follow this creed to the letter. Their comment? The system is biased against me.


33 posted on 04/23/2014 9:23:27 AM PDT by catfish1957 (Face it!!!! The government in DC is full of treasonous bastards)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

I appreciate the graph as well.


34 posted on 04/23/2014 11:20:14 AM PDT by BipolarBob
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To: All

Sold my SODA this morning. I’m happy. I’m looking at biotech for a spec.


35 posted on 04/23/2014 11:21:32 AM PDT by BipolarBob
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To: catfish1957

One of my coffee buddies this morning related that very same sentiment. A 72 year-old-retiree, who was told years ago by someone that “the market is rigged,” and kept his money in CDs. As a result his nest egg of probably less than a million (which ain’t bad), would be valued many-fold that amount had he fifty years ago systematically invested in equities.


36 posted on 04/23/2014 11:25:58 AM PDT by abb
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To: expat_panama

AAPL announces 7:1 stock split


37 posted on 04/23/2014 1:41:17 PM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch
gap up:


38 posted on 04/23/2014 1:49:32 PM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: abb
Sounds a lot like my in-laws. they are quite a bit older than your coffee buddy, and lived through a small bit of the depression.

They did quite well, but I shudder at what they could have accomplished by even just moving 10% of their CD money to equities in the '50's to today.

And they are not alone. I am old enough to remember that 70-80% of those born at that time were ghastly afraid of the market, due to what happened in '29 and afterwards.

39 posted on 04/23/2014 2:31:22 PM PDT by catfish1957 (Face it!!!! The government in DC is full of treasonous bastards)
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To: Wyatt's Torch
Hmmmmm ..... kind of could see this coming, as the shine has come off the apple. This screams two issues. (1) Sales projections may be lagging due to innovation lag. (2) Issue one has created a slight capitalization void.

I know AAPL has boat loads of cash, but things like rumors of rumors can even jar a stock price this lofty.

I think the folks there are a little worried, and how better to shore the Market Cap by generating a stock price that is affordable to the masses. Just think what would happen if BRKa would do a 1000:1 split

40 posted on 04/23/2014 2:42:28 PM PDT by catfish1957 (Face it!!!! The government in DC is full of treasonous bastards)
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To: BipolarBob
I’m looking at biotech for a spec

Noticed these have taken a hit lately. Do you think they have bottomed out? Obamacare has got to have some folks a little queasy on these. Not much use for R & D when a much bigger slice of the population are destined for death panels.

41 posted on 04/23/2014 2:47:20 PM PDT by catfish1957 (Face it!!!! The government in DC is full of treasonous bastards)
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To: catfish1957

Before someone chimes in about their glowing financial results for the quarter, note that same store sales were down for the period. Watch out once expansion wanes.


42 posted on 04/23/2014 3:08:27 PM PDT by catfish1957 (Face it!!!! The government in DC is full of treasonous bastards)
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To: catfish1957

My parents (both born in 1914) were like that. CD’s only, and never all in the same bank.


43 posted on 04/23/2014 3:36:48 PM PDT by abb
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To: catfish1957

I have no luck in calling the bottom or timing the market. I look at broad trends. The sector as a whole has been hit. R & D still continues. I just have some up on my radar and will bite when I like what I’m seeing.


44 posted on 04/23/2014 4:49:13 PM PDT by BipolarBob
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To: All

I am now heavily invested in jelly bean futures. If Florida has a late freeze they could lose most of the crop. Prices will skyrocket.


45 posted on 04/23/2014 7:43:00 PM PDT by BipolarBob
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To: expat_panama
Uh-oh!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3147346/posts
46 posted on 04/23/2014 10:49:54 PM PDT by Chgogal (Obama "hung the SEALs out to dry, basically exposed them like a set of dog balls..." CMH)
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To: Chgogal
These results are more a result of an entitlement mindset that has gripped our country. Look at the 2012 election, which was more analogous to 1980 than many would like to admit.

Our nation has reached the tipping point where more are worried about their Obamaphones, welfare checks, and other government handouts than the economic well being of our country. Our economic lower class is alarmingly growing due to abrupt socialist trends on the behalf of our government. Our debt is at $17T and growing rapidly, so we will see how long this entitlement gravy train lasts before flying off the tracks.

47 posted on 04/24/2014 12:36:59 AM PDT by catfish1957 (Face it!!!! The government in DC is full of treasonous bastards)
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; Aquamarine; Archie Bunker on steroids; ...

So yesterday we had metals up and stocks off in lower volume (bullish sign) with more of the big caps faring better than small.  This morning futures are seeing stocks soaring and metals collapsing.  Note:

Juicy Apple buoys shares, euro volatility sinks Global stocks were back on the front foot on Thursday, as upbeat earnings from tech heavyweights Apple and Facebook helped shake off some of the jitters that have hit the sector in recent weeks. The gains were boosted by the region's tech stocks and come after iPhone giant Apple reported record first quarter sales and laid out plans for a $30 billion share buy back and seven-for-one stock split. …
Wall Street Bracing for Key Tech EarningsPolya Lesova takes a look at the markets, including three stocks to watch today. Photo: Andrew St. Clair for The Wall Street Journal.WSJ Live
Vanguard CEO: Challenges saving for retirementStill a crusader for low-cost investing -- even through actively managed funds.USA TODAY
Here's why the biotech bounce may be short livedWill biotech get its mojo back or is it a dead cat bounce?Talking Numbers
FCC eyes new rules on Net Philly.com - 3 hours ago WASHINGTON - The Federal Communications Commission on Thursday will circulate proposed rules that could give high-speed Internet providers more power over what content moves the fastest on the Web based on which firms pay the most, according to ...
Everyone Freaks Out About the New Net-Neutrality Rules  
Net-Neutrality Advocates Angered by FCC's Planned New Rules  

48 posted on 04/24/2014 4:24:19 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: catfish1957

Oh, I think “the economy” is long off the track and is out plowing cornfields. The market is being moved in large part by people with cash on hand who want to see real increases in welth and scamper about burying nuts like squirrels in November.

TC


49 posted on 04/24/2014 4:27:06 AM PDT by Pentagon Leatherneck
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To: expat_panama

I never know when to sell. Bought GTAT last year @ 8.25. It ran up to 19 and has now pulled back. Don’t know weather to sell it now or just hold it.


50 posted on 04/24/2014 4:41:48 AM PDT by CJinVA
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