Posted on 04/23/2014 7:36:21 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
I certainly appreciate the NYTs efforts to bolster support for Tom Cotton!
This will help Tom’s fundraising, as folks started relaxing at the prospect of a sure victory.
The Arkansas Republicans are running Asa Hutchinson for Governor.
Hutchinson has run for several different positions in the last decade, but hadn’t won any of them. Now, he will probably challenge former Dem Rep. Mike Ross who stepped down as Rep last session.
Point: The Arkansas Republicans have little pizzazz to offer. Asa running again? He provides about as much excitement as Bob Dole did in 1996.
Pryor’s team is running some very negative ads against Cotton. Of course, they are half-truths and misprepresentations, but they may be having an impact. One says Cotton took money from evil corporate interests. [Yeah, it was called employment.]
I am in the NW region which has been predominately Republican for decades, but that demographic is changing somewhat. I don’t know how Cotton is attacking or running in the other quadrants of the state. NW region is probably pretty safe for him, but Ross was the Rep from the Little Rock and south region.
Ross & Cotton hail from the same district (Ross stepped down in 2010 since he suspected he might lose to Cotton, so wanted to preserve an “undefeated” image). The 4th is exclusively the South section of the state, but does not include Little Rock (which is in the 2nd).
As for Hutchinson, he was a bad choice on its face to run for Governor. He had a disastrous performance in the last 2006 open race for Governor against Beebe. Except for his stint as Congressman, he’s been running unsuccessfully for office statewide for 3 decades (Senator, Attorney General, Governor).
AR is finally realigning heavily to the GOP, but that’s no excuse to run lackluster candidates, especially for Governor.
This is for those who want to know the New York Times polling methodology ( as you showed in the link you provided, thans ):
The New York Times and Kaiser have produced a sample in Arkansas that reports they voted in 2012 for Romney over Obama—by one point. But Romney carried Arkansas in 2012 by 24 points. Similarly, the Kentucky sample is +3 Romney when reality was +23. The Louisiana sample is +3 Obama in a state Obama lost by 17, and the North Carolina sample is +7 Obama in a state he lost by 3.
The whole point of question 12 is to provide a reality test for the sample. That’s why they ask that question—we know what happened in 2012, so the only thing to be learned by asking the 2012 question of the sample is to ensure that it’s a reasonably accurate snapshot of voters in the state. Of course there’ll always be some variance between reality and the sample’s report of its vote a year and a half ago—but not a 23 point variance.
A reputable news organization would have looked at question 12 and thrown the poll out. But then again, it was the New York Times.
Polls merely prepare us for the predetermined outcome, we have gotten so used to it that we don’t even question the result.
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