A look to history may give insight to the future. Here is an interesting series of articles starting in 1992:
30 Killed in Ambush of Refugee Bus in Caucasus
Separatists in Georgia Look to Russia for Protection
Separatist Region in Georgia Votes on Independence
Accounts Undercut Claims By Georgia on Russia War
And, finally, from a German source: Russia Accuses Georgia of Aggression as EU Sends Mediators
Seems we have been here before.
http://www.combatreform.org/georgianwar.htm
BTW, here is some detailed analysis on Georgian situation.