MAP: How Ukraine and Russia are moving toward war

The Washington Post ^ | May 2, 2014 | ADAM TAYLOR AND GENE THORP

[MinorityRepublican]

With Ukrainian troops launching a major assault on a rebel stronghold Friday, just a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Kiev to withdraw its troops from the east and south of the country, it looks like the Ukraine crisis is entering a new stage.

As The Post's Michael Birnbaum reported from Moscow, "it seemed possible that even a small spark could ignite a tinderbox regional conflict."

Given this escalation, The Washington Post is publishing a new map that shows, using information from the Royal United Services Institute and our own analysis, recent troop movements in the region. The graphic illustrates how military exercises conducted by Russia have left a big build-up of troops on Ukraine's border. It also shows Ukraine's own military moves to its borders with Russia and Moldova's Russian-dominated enclave, Transnistria.

It'd be wrong to assume that military conflict between Russia and Ukraine is inevitable: There remains plenty of hope that a diplomatic solution can be found. That said, the graphic provides an important look at the military reality of the crisis.

[skinkinthegrass]

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[melsec]

“None of the above would happened if not for a western meddling.”

While I know what you are saying I half agree. I think it gave Putin an excuse to take back some areas he believed was theirs anyway but definatley the wooing of Ukraine towards the EU has made Putin very nervous - I am pretty sure he liked having Ukraine as a buffer between the EU and Russia. Like I have said I think the EU miscalculated on how all this would be viewed in Russia and how twitchy they are about the EU “encroaching” into areas they still hope to hold political influence over.

Mel

[melsec]

Wow thanks for the detailed reply - I am glad he said no to Syria as well - The thing about being seen to be a strong leader is not to be so unwise about making such statements and then backing down. I am sure Putin sees Obama as weak because of this and takes that into account when dealing with him. I am also sure that Putin has seen that the Obama administration is happy to stir things up in areas and provide weapons etc to “rebels”. So Putin must be wondering if the populist overthrow in Ukraine was USA or EU inspired rather than a spontaneous uprising - like you said no war happens by accident! I do not know the answers to these things but just trying to see the thinking from both sides!

[wetphoenix]

~Wow thanks for the detailed reply - I am glad he said no to Syria as well - The thing about being seen to be a strong leader is not to be so unwise about making such statements and then backing down. I am sure Putin sees Obama as weak because of this and takes that into account when dealing with him. I am also sure that Putin has seen that the Obama administration is happy to stir things up in areas and provide weapons etc to “rebels”. So Putin must be wondering if the populist overthrow in Ukraine was USA or EU inspired rather than a spontaneous uprising - like you said no war happens by accident! I do not know the answers to these things but just trying to see the thinking from both sides!~

Nobody knows for sure. On the other hand I still point at Finland as an example. It is a perfect example of a former Russian subject which is an independent free nation and Russians are allowing them to live peacefully. Maybe Ukraine has to follow it’s model?

[Jimmy Valentine]

Ukraine was the crown jewel of the Soviet Union. Big industrial base huge agricultural and natural resources. Warm water ports in Odessa and Sevastopol
Putin wants Ukraine back formally annexed or informally controlled

He is going for the whole deal

[Jimmy Valentine]

Factor this in. We no longer have a single tank in Europe. During the Cold War we had 1,000. Militarily we don’t have the horsepower to deal with this

Putin wants all of Ukraine under his control and he will get it

[castlegreyskull]

There is no reason to put a carrier in the Baltic. We have plenty are European airbases.

[sunrise_sunset]

Russia is not going to invade Ukraine and become an occupier. Putin is no fool, he saw what happened in Iraq.

It is far better to dismember the country by backing protracted separatist war. Also, it is obvious Kiev has limited support in the South East and coastal areas which makes Russia’s task much easier.

Ukraine will be bleed empty, it won’t exist but as impoverished landlocked rump state when this is over. Then NATO can have it.

[WriteOn]

It will take the defeat of Ukraine to get Europe to beef up its defenses once more. Maybe a Maginot line. And to solve the problem of dependence on the East.