Skip to comments.Coppock Market Message: Get Out And Stay Out - Check Back In Q1 2015
Posted on 05/05/2014 10:53:26 AM PDT by blam
Coppock Market Message: Get Out And Stay Out - Check Back In Q1 2015
05/05/2014 12:44 -0400
Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,
This chart's value is in posing an if-then question: if today's S&P 500 follows these patterns, what will our reaction be?
Longtime contributor B.C. recently submitted a chart that combines two interesting market tools: the Coppock Curve and historical analogies. Coppock called his technical invention the Very Long Term (VLT) Momentum indicator, and the so-called "killer wave" is a top followed by a second lower peak.
This chart shows the Coppock Curve for the S&P 500, overlaid against previous deflationary secular Bear Markets in the late 1800s, the U.S market in the 1920s and 30s and the Japanese Nikkei stock market index from 1986 to the present.
I have added notes to the chart to mark the potential market bottom in early 2015 and a possible peak in Fall 2016. I also added a note that suggests the shallow troughs in 2005 and 2011 were the result of unprecedented financial engineering by central banks: financial authorities have been dead-set on limiting market declines and "buying time" so the broken parasitic financial system could feed off the real economy long enough to restore its viability.
If any indicator issued to-the-day signals that worked 100% of the time, everyone would follow the signal and it would lose its predictability. As a result, any signal--and any historical analogy--is simply one possibility of many. This chart's value is in posing an if-then question: if today's S&P 500 follows these patterns, what will our reaction be?
Economist Steen Jakobsen has opined that the S&P 500 is due for a 30% decline with a bottom in late 2014 or early 2015.
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
What’s going to happen is certain but unfortunately when it will happen is only speculation.
"You idiot! Get back in there and sell, sell, sell!"