Ukraine needs Russia and the West

Washington Post ^ | May 13, 2014 | Katrina vanden Heuvel

[wetphoenix]

Violence in Ukraine is spreading. The Ukrainian military and police are splitting apart, a reflection of the fissures in that deeply divided country. Pro-Russian separatists are taking over government buildings and police stations in eastern Ukraine. Pro-government mobs have burned protesters alive. The referenda on self-rule cobbled together by pro-Russian movements in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions deepens the divisions. Zealots on both sides could drive the country into a bloody and destructive civil war.

The United States has no direct national security interests at stake in Ukraine, but we do have an interest in a united and functional Ukraine that has stable relations with its European Union neighbors to the west and with Russia to the east. And the United States surely wants to forestall a crisis that could disintegrate into civil war, economic collapse and chaos, possibly destabilizing a weak European economy.

But if the United States is to help stabilize Ukraine and prevent a much larger European crisis, then the American political establishment and much of the mainstream media will need a sober reassessment of reality.

U.S. actions over the past several months have defied common sense. Given the deep divisions in Ukrainian society and the vital interest Russia has in the country, it was a provocative step for the United States to immediately and unconditionally recognize as legitimate the government erected out of violent protests and in violation of the negotiated agreement for a peaceful transition. And it makes no sense to treat Russia’s actions as an existential threat to the post-war international order, given that the West needs Russian cooperation to stabilize Ukraine both politically and financially.

[no-to-illegals]

the mainstream media will need a sober reassessment

Drunks swearing off alcohol and doing some actual work to find facts and then being allowed to print and speak those facts would be nice? But ... the other drunks will have none of that.

[goldstategop]

As the Saker pointed out today, Ukraine is the black hole of Europe. I’ve been fond of pointing its not a geopolitical prize; its a huge burden. Whoever “owns” Ukraine or its successor states, will have to pay the enormous cost of rebuilding an entire country from scratch. No wonder Russia does not want. But the Saker goes on to point out America’s russophobic and delusional policy is based on a fundamental misconception about Russia:

“[T]the USA’s entire Ukrainian policy is based on a fallacy cooked up by Zbigniew Brzezinski and parroted by Hillary Clinton: Brzezinski believes that Russia cannot be a superpower without the Ukraine and Hillary believes that Putin wants to rebuild the USSR. They are both completely wrong, of course: Russia is already a superpower (it has now defeated the US/EU/NATO alliance in both Syria and the Ukraine) and Putin does not want to rebuild the USSR at all. I wonder if there is anybody in the US polity which understands who much these conceptual mistakes will end up costing the USA. By listening to these two hateful maniacs (this is really what Zbig and Hillary are!) the USA has completely mismanaged every step of its crucial relationship with both the EU and Russia.”

Both Zbigniew Brzezinski and Hillary Clinton are freaks. They do not understand Russia or President Vladimir Putin at all. Russia has no interest in having to pay for the West’s mess in Ukraine. Let’s look again why that is absolutely true:

“Because no matter what, Russia will have the option to chose how much of the Ukrainian burden it is willing to shoulder whereas the West will have to take whatever Russia does not want. Yep, that’s right. Just remember the thought experiment we just did above. Russia could, in theory, refuse to take up any further burden and declare “ain’t my problem, sorry” and there is nothing the US/EU/NATO could do about it (not to mention that such a Russians stance would completely deflate the stupid canard about Russia being ready to invade the Baltics, Poland or any other EU country).”

Russia is not inherently aggressive and does not have any imperial ambitions. Only someone lunatic or stupid (and Putin doesn’t strike me as being such a kind of person) would assume ownership of a black hole. The West doesn’t really want Ukraine but wants to punish Russia for reasons no one in Washington or Brussels can fathom. And since Russia is not playing according to their script they’re at a loss on what to do next.

Just as well since Ukraine is going to drain the energy and resources out of Washington and Brussels - especially if they have to shoulder the burden of rebuilding whatever part of it Russia doesn’t want. In a sane world, the West wouldn’t have meddled around in Ukraine in the first place. But we will probably have to wait for the country to crash before the West wakes up and comes to its senses. The economic basket case that is Ukraine has been extensively discussed in the Russian press but the West is still in denial about what kind of situation it is facing there.

One that more sanctions against Russia will not help to solve.