I sort of agree with your assessment.
If Hillary were going to run, I think Bill just sank that boat with his comment. Six months to recover? That indicates a major medical problem. I am not sure there is enough sexist guilt (as opposed to white guilt of 2008/2012) to get her the nomination/election.
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Add to that the Dem faction that does not like the Clintons anyway, and Hillary’s chances are less than ever. That faction is the one that derailed Ms Inevitable’s last trek to her coronation. That same faction is working behind the scenes even now to present a viable alternative to Hillary Clinton Rodham.
Their bench is so thin they may have to run a splinter