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Investment & Finance Thread (May 18 edition)
Investment & Finance Thread ^ | 05/18/2014 | Freeper Investors

Posted on 05/18/2014 5:35:14 PM PDT by expat_panama

 

 

 

My thinking was that if the current stock correction's now six weeks old, how old would that be if I could prove I was a cocker spaniel?

 

fwiw, we're still inside both these trendlines and these too.

 

This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here and tomorrow morning we'll go on with our--

 

Open invitation continues always for idea-input for the thread, this being a joint effort works well.   Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket.



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: financial; stockmarket; wallstreet

1 posted on 05/18/2014 5:35:14 PM PDT by expat_panama
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; Aquamarine; Archie Bunker on steroids; ...

--I mean, how long could this correction possibly last anyway?

2 posted on 05/18/2014 5:37:08 PM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Didn’t Buffet say something along the lines of being lethargic bordering on slothful as regards trading. John Templeton remarked that if you don’t use borrowed money you’ll never have anything to worry about. Viewing this once again was valuable: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFn1G2goDQw


3 posted on 05/18/2014 6:27:29 PM PDT by MSF BU (n)
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To: MSF BU

That was a fun trip down memory lane! Dad & I always watched WSW together...WAY back in the day when you needed a newspaper and a telephone to do your commodities trading, LOL!


4 posted on 05/18/2014 7:27:37 PM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set...)
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To: expat_panama

Not much economic data on tap this week...

Plosser speaks tomorrow

Yellen giving commencement speech at NYU on Wednesday

FOMC minutes for 4/29 meeting on Wednesday

PMI Manufacturing Flash and Initial Claims on Thursday

Existing home sales Thursday, New home sales on Friday


5 posted on 05/19/2014 4:38:19 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: expat_panama

NYSE MARKET ACCESS CENTER: MORNING REPORT

Ahead of the Bell: Dow futures are trading down 32 points and S&P futures are trading down 4 handles. U.S. stock futures are trading below fair value ahead of the opening as investors assess a slate of deal developments, including the rejection of Pfizer’s bid to buy drug maker AstraZeneca PLC, while waiting for two Federal Reserve officials to talk about monetary policy. The corporate calendar is light with Campbell Soup (CPB) and Valspar (VAL) reporting before the opening bell, while Urban Outfitters (URBN) reports after the market close. In other news, The Kremlin is reporting that Russia is ordering troops deployed near Ukraine to return to their home bases.

• No releases scheduled on today’s economic calendar. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and San Francisco Fed President John Williams speak in Dallas at 12:10 ET. Market participants also await the FOMC minutes release on 21-May.
• On Friday, stocks rose with the Russell 2000 Index erasing a loss as data showing growth in housing starts overshadowed a drop in consumer confidence. The Dow and S&P still finished lower for the week ended May 16th.
• With the bulk of Q2 earnings season behind us, analysts are forecasting S&P 500 companies (in aggregate) will report 6.87% earnings growth for the second half of 2014 and 14.73% earnings growth for 2015.
• The dollar is down against a basket of major currencies. Gold is trading at $1,302. Crude oil is currently trading at $102 a barrel.
• On CNBC this morning, Ben Lichtenstein, president of TradersAudio.com, said that a “major divergence” is developing in the U.S. market as the Russell and Nasdaq are “unwilling” to participate in the rally.

Friday’s Close
DJIA up 44.50 pts / +0.27% / 16,491.31
S&P up 7.01 pts / +0.37% / 1,877.86
Nasdaq up 21.30 pts / +0.76% / 4,090.59

Monday’s Futures
Dow Futures down 32.00 pts / -0.19%
S&P Futures down 4.00 pts / -0.23%
Nasdaq Futures down 6.50 pts / -0.18%

Overseas Markets
FTSE -1.95%
CAC 40 -0.15%
NIKKEI 225 -0.64%
HANG SENG -0.04%

Overseas: Global stock markets are mixed today. In Asia, equity markets finished broadly lower. Negative sentiment surrounding China was cited as a regional headwind amidst continued slowdown in the housing sector and further crackdown on shadow lending. Following a mixed open, European equity markets have generally drifted lower, with just Greece +2.0%, Ireland +1.5% and Austria +0.04% currently trading higher. Amidst light macro updates, focus was on earnings announcements and M&A developments.
Economic Reports: None.

Top Headlines

• AstraZeneca PLC tumbled in London earlier today after the company rejected a sweetened and final offer from pharma giant Pfizer. AstraZeneca said PFE’s offer falls shorts of AZN’s value as an independent science-led company.
• AT&T Inc. announced late on Sunday it will buy DirecTV in a stock-and-cash deal worth $67.1 billion (including the DTV’s debt). Under the $95. a shares deal, approved by both companies, DTV shareholders will receive $28.50 per share in cash, and about $66.50 per share in AT&T stock (depending on price of AT&T stock upon closing of the transaction).
• Google Inc.’s YouTube unit has struck a deal to buy Twitch, a privately held video-streaming service for gamers, for more than $1 billion in cash.

Commodities/Currency
Gold: up $8.80 to $1,302.2
Oil: up $0.69 to $102.27

EUR/USD 1.3716 +0.0024
USD/JPY 101.17 -0.32
GBP/USD 1.6825 +0.0012

Volatility Index (VIX): As of the close of business Friday, May 16, 2014 the VIX is down 0.73 at 12.44

Companies Reporting Quarterly Earnings

• Campbell Soup reports Q3 EPS $0.62 vs est $0.59.
• Valspar reports Q2 EPS $1.07 ex-items vs est $1.04.

Today’s Opening and Closing Bells

Executives and guests of Merk Investments LLC will visit the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to highlight the launch of its deliverable gold ETF, Merk Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: OUNZ). Axel Merk, Manager of the Merk Funds and President of Merk Investments LLC will ring the Opening Bell.

The Council for Economic Education Highlights the 14th Annual National Economic Challenge will ring the Closing Bell.


6 posted on 05/19/2014 5:04:29 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; Aquamarine; Archie Bunker on steroids; ...

GOOOD MORING ALL!  We're starting with futures saying gold up & stocks down --more or less.  The Yahoo calendar says nothing much in econ reports til Wed, though I'll never know why we got Durables coming on what, Saturday?  News:


7 posted on 05/19/2014 5:22:17 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: Wyatt's Torch
VIX is down 0.73 at 12.44

Isn't that up?  I mean, I thought it closed Fri. @ 11.39...

8 posted on 05/19/2014 5:35:38 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: Diana in Wisconsin; MSF BU
...a newspaper and a telephone to do your commodities trading...

--and doing research at the public library.  Whoa, that was over a quarter of a century ago, tx fer the ping!

9 posted on 05/19/2014 5:43:38 AM PDT by expat_panama (If you can't explain it simply then you don't understand it.)
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To: expat_panama
I have been investing since the late 70's, and I have not ever seen such a protracted period of time of where there basically is no where to invest.

That is why the markets are so oversold, and why there is so much cash sitting on the sidelines. Never in my life would I dream I would do a dance for a 5% return.

You guys may want to shoot me, but I'd like to see about a 10-20% correction in equities, so we can bring some sanity and normalcy back into the equation.

10 posted on 05/19/2014 6:01:05 AM PDT by catfish1957 (Face it!!!! The government in DC is full of treasonous bastards)
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To: All

I bought DTV the other day in the mid 80s when T said they were going to buy it out in the high 90s. I’ll unload today if it pops. Regulators could derail this buyout so it’s just a quick time trade.


11 posted on 05/19/2014 6:07:20 AM PDT by BipolarBob
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To: expat_panama

FactSet is showing the open at 13.25 - the futures (VX00) is up 0.11 to 13.36


12 posted on 05/19/2014 6:12:25 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: catfish1957

I’m fine with a 10-20% drop in equities...if I know it’s coming :-)


13 posted on 05/19/2014 6:13:23 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: catfish1957
You guys may want to shoot me, but I'd like to see about a 10-20% correction in equities, so we can bring some sanity and normalcy back into the equation.

You will. It's estimating the WHEN that's tricky. Several months ago, I read a bio on Hetty Green, the richest woman on Wall Street. One of her maxims was to keep a stash of ready cash, so as to take advantage of a distress sale when the opportunity arose.

14 posted on 05/19/2014 6:47:27 AM PDT by abb
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To: catfish1957; abb; Wyatt's Torch
like to see about a 10-20% correction in equities, so we can bring some sanity and normalcy back

Interesting, we’re all in agreement with this. Personally, I’d just love to see a bit more clarity here.

15 posted on 05/19/2014 7:01:32 AM PDT by expat_panama (If you can't explain it simply then you don't understand it.)
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To: expat_panama

I don’t think the market it over-bought. Given earnings there is room to expand from here. But if there is a correction there is room to make money on the downside and then again on the upside :-)


16 posted on 05/19/2014 7:42:05 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch; abb; catfish1957
catfish1957 so much cash sitting on the sidelines

abb  keep a stash of ready cash

Wyatt's Torch don’t think the market it over-bought.

My take is that everyone's right here at the same time.  I was just comparing total cash to total stock assets and --

--back in the early 80's folks had almost four times as much wealth tied up in stocks as they had ready in cash, and that's been falling ever since.  Sometimes the drop supports a lovely bull market, but other times it just seems to reflect a new economic structure...

17 posted on 05/19/2014 8:01:14 AM PDT by expat_panama (If you can't explain it simply then you don't understand it.)
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To: abb
One of her maxims was to keep a stash of ready cash, so as to take advantage of a distress sale when the opportunity arose

I go by the same philosophy. I bought more equities in the 1st half of '09 than in any other time of my entire 35 yrs. of investing. Was I nervous?, yep!!!!! But the consolidation had begun, and it was worth it.

18 posted on 05/19/2014 3:30:39 PM PDT by catfish1957 (Face it!!!! The government in DC is full of treasonous bastards)
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; Aquamarine; Archie Bunker on steroids; ...

Hi gang --running late on vacation sched but after yesterday's 'dead-cat-bounce' (rebound in lite trade) we're looking at more of the same.  Thinking of creating a 'more of the same' macro...


19 posted on 05/20/2014 5:07:34 AM PDT by expat_panama (If you can't explain it simply then you don't understand it.)
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To: expat_panama

20 posted on 05/20/2014 11:16:04 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: expat_panama

Do I dare picking a short-term bottom here? I’m tempted.


21 posted on 05/20/2014 11:52:13 AM PDT by MichaelCorleone (Jesus Christ is not a religion. He's the Truth.)
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To: MichaelCorleone
a short-term bottom here?

Somehow when I look at how prices have been going---

--I'm a bit hard pressed to see that we've had any bottoms or tops at all since Dec. '13.  For some reason or other everything just got perched and won't move.  Maybe it's all waiting for a decisive trend in the '14 election, maybe stocks have decided to build a super strong'n'stable base to launch the next 3-year bull market, or maybe nobody knows nuttin'.   My take is that while it's real easy to make money during a solid uptrend, and that lots of folks make money on shorts during a down trend, and some even can profit during back & forth volitility --I've never known how anyone can profit when nothing happens.  Anyone?

OK, so at least we don't lose money here...

22 posted on 05/20/2014 12:43:30 PM PDT by expat_panama (If you can't explain it simply then you don't understand it.)
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To: expat_panama
Hi.

My take is that while it's real easy to make money during a solid uptrend, and that lots of folks make money on shorts during a down trend, and some even can profit during back & forth volitility --I've never known how anyone can profit when nothing happens. Anyone?

The options to hedge your bet/investment is called a "straddle."

No, I'm not going to explain the margins, dynamics, etc. right now. Maybe someone else can.

5.56mm

23 posted on 05/20/2014 12:47:25 PM PDT by M Kehoe
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To: M Kehoe
a "straddle."

ah.

thanks.

 

[more homework tonight...]

24 posted on 05/20/2014 3:38:45 PM PDT by expat_panama (If you can't explain it simply then you don't understand it.)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Where the heck did you find those sector graphs. I MUST HAAAAVE!!!!!!!


25 posted on 05/21/2014 3:58:56 AM PDT by catfish1957 (Face it!!!! The government in DC is full of treasonous bastards)
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To: catfish1957

On my Twitter Finance list:

https://mobile.twitter.com/bpjauburn/lists/finance

Can’t remember who posts them but it’s pretty much every day. This is a pretty good list of traders, Econ people, finance journalists, banks, etc.


26 posted on 05/21/2014 4:35:08 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; Aquamarine; Archie Bunker on steroids; ...

Happy Mid-week; stocks still within ranges (down but not too bad yesterday + today's futures upbeat)


27 posted on 05/21/2014 5:25:24 AM PDT by expat_panama (If you can't explain it simply then you don't understand it.)
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To: catfish1957
Tried recreating in FactSet. this is May to date performance. I can get a daily once the markets open:


28 posted on 05/21/2014 6:08:29 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Please help me out torch, I’ve wandered thru twitter & the link, I’ve searched the image, but I still can’t find where you’re generating the chart.


29 posted on 05/21/2014 6:48:51 AM PDT by expat_panama (If you can't explain it simply then you don't understand it.)
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To: expat_panama

I didn’t generate it. Someone in my finance list on Twitter did yesterday.


30 posted on 05/21/2014 7:13:09 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Working on a different on in FactSet for intraday


31 posted on 05/21/2014 7:21:55 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch

come to think of it, probably be something in the ‘research’ tab of a broker or IBD...


32 posted on 05/21/2014 7:31:09 AM PDT by expat_panama (If you can't explain it simply then you don't understand it.)
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To: expat_panama

Probably. I’ve got it built in FactSet so I’ll post after lunch.


33 posted on 05/21/2014 8:28:58 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch

WT ... Thanks for the link. Was afraid you had to be a SPDR investor to get it. Will definitely bookmark. Sector performance is one of my benchmarks to guess where the market is going.


34 posted on 05/21/2014 9:24:35 AM PDT by catfish1957 (Face it!!!! The government in DC is full of treasonous bastards)
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To: catfish1957
Here's today's performance so far:


35 posted on 05/21/2014 10:30:10 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; Aquamarine; Archie Bunker on steroids; ...

Hi guys!   So we got stock futures drifting down into minus land (slightly) after yesterdays rebound in lighter trade.  Like we were saying --that even if there may be no big direction in general there's always direction bigtime in individual market sectors.  Time to focus on which one.  fwiw. claims & home sales today.   Here's what's got my eye this AM:

High Frequency Hyperbole - Part II - Asness, Brown, Mendelson, Mittal, RCM
We Haven't Seen a Bull Market, Yet - Russell Redenbaugh/Jim Juliano, RCM
Is a Bond and Stock Correction On the Way? - Michael Gayed, MarketWatch
China's Vulnerability to Bad News - Philippa Malmgren, International Econ.
We're in a stock 'correction right now': Gartman And "there's more selling to come,' closely followed investor Dennis Gartman tells CNBC. CNBC
No, stocks aren’t wildly overvalued: Citi strategist finds hole in Shiller’s CAPE Tobias Levkovich says the Nobel-winning professor committed a critical error in constructing his cyclically adjusted P/E valuation model. Daily Ticker


36 posted on 05/22/2014 5:13:56 AM PDT by expat_panama (If you can't explain it simply then you don't understand it.)
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To: Wyatt's Torch; catfish1957
ah --it's sector funds as an index of sector performance --neat!  here's ten weeks + NASDAQ&SnP:

Looks like we got energy on top & consumer discretionary on the bottom...

37 posted on 05/22/2014 5:42:43 AM PDT by expat_panama (If you can't explain it simply then you don't understand it.)
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To: expat_panama

Thanks expat and WT.... Is there a “link” so I can personally use this, and massage the graph parameters for my research?


38 posted on 05/22/2014 5:48:21 AM PDT by catfish1957 (Face it!!!! The government in DC is full of treasonous bastards)
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To: expat_panama; Wyatt's Torch

I found what looks to be a “tools” section at the SPDR site that requires registration. (and subscription?). Are y’all subscribers, or is there some magical link to the graphing tools?


39 posted on 05/22/2014 5:56:01 AM PDT by catfish1957 (Face it!!!! The government in DC is full of treasonous bastards)
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To: catfish1957

I use FactSet (buy side terminal) which is subscription based like a Bloomberg.


40 posted on 05/22/2014 6:08:30 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: catfish1957

just got if from my scottrade aplet, it’s just an etf graph, bcome to think of it, yahoo would help — http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=^GSPC&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=xle&ql=1


41 posted on 05/22/2014 6:32:38 AM PDT by expat_panama (If you can't explain it simply then you don't understand it.)
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To: expat_panama

42 posted on 05/22/2014 1:48:33 PM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: expat_panama

Good point. I could just go to Yahoo and build a portfolio based on the SPDR ticker symbols. Duh!!!!!


43 posted on 05/22/2014 3:59:18 PM PDT by catfish1957 (Face it!!!! The government in DC is full of treasonous bastards)
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; Aquamarine; Archie Bunker on steroids; ...

Three day weekend prep --futures have stocks'n'metals up'n'down respectively (slightly) after yesterday's rise in mixed volume.  Headlines:


44 posted on 05/23/2014 3:57:35 AM PDT by expat_panama (If you can't explain it simply then you don't understand it.)
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To: catfish1957
portfolio based on the SPDR ticker symbols

That was the idea I got from WT's approach but we're not exactly looking at sectors but rather ETF's that try to mimic sectors.  I'll keep swimming thru IBD, they ususally have some list or table on sector performance.  It'll have to be over the weekend as today I'm visiting NASA...

45 posted on 05/23/2014 4:02:00 AM PDT by expat_panama (If you can't explain it simply then you don't understand it.)
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To: expat_panama

Does this help?
http://www.barchart.com/stocks/heatmap.php


46 posted on 05/23/2014 5:57:19 AM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin
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