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For the next 10 years or so, America will likely be the stabilizing factor in the global oil markets because its cheap, reliable oil supply can help offset major production disruptions elsewhere, or even displace some of these more expensive oil sources. Is this a sustainable position? Probably not. According to the Energy Information Administration, after 2020 oil production in the U.S. is expected to slip again as shale output starts to decline. Also, Saudi Arabia is sitting on vast quantities of oil that will likely be in greater need 10-15 years from now than today.
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Disagree here on three points. First,imho US oil production will likely peak out much further north 9.6 million barrels a day—than the EIA predicts. Their prediction is based on the slope Eagle Ford and Baaken production increases flat lining by the end of 2015. Something I don’t disagree with. However, much of the new drilling is taking place in the permian basin where reserves ten times larger than the baaken and eagle ford combined. The slope of production increases in the permian basin has been relatively flat. But sometime next year that slope is going to go parabolic in much the same way that the baaken and eagle ford have been for the last 3 years. There will be as many as five years where the permian basin will enjoy 500k -1 million barrel @ day oil production increases.

I think that EIA is also wrong about sliding US production after 2020. When it comes—it won’t be because of diminished supplies. If anything, US supplies will increase as long as oil prices are north of $90@barrel. Further they are much higher than the EIA’s numbers already. What will slow US production is falling oil prices.

Falling oil prices will come after 2020 because of slowing demand increases and rising supply.

After 2020 or so, an increasing number of countries will have learned to frack which will raise production but also competition from competing transportation fuels like natural gas trains trucks and buses plus electric cars and fuel economy will start to put an crimp on demand. Chevron I think put out a chart a couple months back. They estimated that demand for oil would not peak until 2030. So 2020-2030 will be a transitional period.

Anyhow that’s my WAG.