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U.S. officials cut estimate of recoverable Monterey Shale oil by 96%
Los Angeles Times ^ | May 20, 2014 | Louis Sahagun

Posted on 05/21/2014 6:41:36 PM PDT by Praxeologue

Federal energy authorities have slashed by 96% the estimated amount of recoverable oil buried in California's vast Monterey Shale deposits, deflating its potential as a national "black gold mine" of petroleum.

Just 600 million barrels of oil can be extracted with existing technology, far below the 13.7 billion barrels once thought recoverable from the jumbled layers of subterranean rock spread across much of Central California, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

The new estimate, expected to be released publicly next month, is a blow to the nation's oil future and to projections that an oil boom would bring as many as 2.8 million new jobs to California and boost tax revenue by $24.6 billion annually.

The Monterey Shale formation contains about two-thirds of the nation's shale oil reserves. It had been seen as an enormous bonanza, reducing the nation's need for foreign oil imports through the use of the latest in extraction techniques, including acid treatments, horizontal drilling and fracking.

The energy agency said the earlier estimate of recoverable oil, issued in 2011 by an independent firm under contract with the government, broadly assumed that deposits in the Monterey Shale formation were as easily recoverable as those found in shale formations elsewhere.

The estimate touched off a speculation boom among oil companies. The new findings seem certain to dampen that enthusiasm.

(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: energy; lablog; monterey; montereyshale; oil; shale
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To: Kennard

The EIA tends to give screwier estimates than the USGS. The USGS tends to be conservative in their estimated reserves, only revising them upward when they have more sound data to go on (proven production).


81 posted on 05/22/2014 6:07:28 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: Kennard
Ok folks, are you a oil optimist ? or a debbie downer ?
Where they say " we can't " where there seems to be no way, God will make a way.
Necessity is the mother of invention.
Someone WILL come up a way to extract that Monterey Shale oil efficiently and at a cost effective way.
82 posted on 05/22/2014 6:52:06 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: Kennard

The next “ BIG ONE “ in California will perhaps crack open all that shale... hey who says no good thing comes from earthquakes.


83 posted on 05/22/2014 6:53:32 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: familyop

That is ? if the US consumption was solely dependent just on the Monte Ray Shale only, how much would it last if it was just a percentage of US consumption ? or added to the US reserve ?


84 posted on 05/22/2014 6:55:29 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: elpadre

Just as “ the Titanic is unsinkable “ ?


85 posted on 05/22/2014 6:57:43 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: Kennard

Even though that they haven’t cracked the code in Monte Ray ( just yet ), that means ? that they are working on it ?


86 posted on 05/22/2014 7:00:18 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: crusty old prospector
Actually, Continental Resources is one of the largest, if not the largest interest holder in the Bakken/Three Forks play in the Williston Basin.

They are no slouches when it comes to producing oil, and they are not afraid of innovation. It becomes a question of finding the correct exploration and production strategy and methods, and we had been drilling Bakken Wells in Montana and North Dakota for nearly a decade before most of that was settled on as 'figured out'--even then, pad wells, and innovations in completion techniques still indicate refinements.

The industry is one of innovation, and it will take a little more to put the puzzle pieces together in more complex geology than geology which is more straightforward in terms of structure and tectonic features like faults.

87 posted on 05/22/2014 7:02:50 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: crusty old prospector

How much do you think tectonic forces may have contributed to thermal maturity? In the Bakken we’re generally somewhere between 9000 and 11000 ft., but there just hasn’t been the amount of deformational influence I’d expect in the Monterey. Heat flow might be a bit different, there, too. As a result, I’d expect the sweet spot to be a mite shallower.


88 posted on 05/22/2014 7:07:16 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: gaijin

You are welcome! I love seeing good people succeed, and if you decide to give it a go, wish you nothing but the best.


89 posted on 05/22/2014 7:09:47 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: ckilmer
" but the faulting in texas and colorado and north dakota just doesn’t compare with the faulting in California. The ground in california is way too knotty knarly for a drill.
That is, I’ve seen pictures of the ground they’re trying to drill and it looks knotty knarlier than oak stump burl. "

This ?


Meet this :


And this :

90 posted on 05/22/2014 7:26:30 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: thackney

Strip mine the stuff ?


91 posted on 05/22/2014 7:27:52 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: DakotaNative
I think the USGS was primarily concerned with credibility--and scientific integrity.

Even the NDGS estimates were greater than the USGS one, and although people could accuse the State of trying to promote development, the numbers were based on production estimates from existing wells, projected to likely hotspots and a relatively narrow corridor of anticipated thermal maturity.

Those estimates proved to be pessimistic, too.

I have no problem with the NDGS nor the NDIC (North Dakota Industrial Commission--Oil and Gas Division) on that.

They have to be careful not to hype a play or they, like the USGS could lose credibility, and that is no place to be.

92 posted on 05/22/2014 7:37:03 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: thackney
Saw a guy on YouTube about a year or two ago complaining about North Dakota.
I can't remember what he was ranting about but he sure was not from the north or from North Dakota, that's for sure.
He was a young buck to boot, that could explain it.
He might have heard he could make a easy high paid buck and was disappointed that he had to do some really hard work to make over $ 100,000 a year.
93 posted on 05/22/2014 7:37:47 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: Smokin' Joe
You gave me a idea of " walking rigs " ... now let's think and wait a minute... suppose ?
Let's say a walking rig made like those huge roving hulk pads they use to use for the Saturn 5 rocket or the space shuttle ?
Have all the rigs and equipment on a roving pad like that ? and when you want to move it ? just unhook the connections, draw up the pipes and turn the tracks like a Sherman tank.
94 posted on 05/22/2014 7:55:33 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: Smokin' Joe

Wasn’t there a financial crises in Asia about that time in Asia because of fear the flu ? mainly in China.


95 posted on 05/22/2014 7:57:51 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: American Constitutionalist; Lazamataz; thackney
these gnarly knotty lines are faulted ground in california that we're talking about.

http://seismo.berkeley.edu/gifs/Hwy14-1-blog.jpg

 This is the knarly knotty burl of an oak tree.


96 posted on 05/22/2014 8:19:41 PM PDT by ckilmer
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To: American Constitutionalist
Let's say a walking rig made like those huge roving hulk pads they use to use for the Saturn 5 rocket or the space shuttle ? Have all the rigs and equipment on a roving pad like that ? and when you want to move it ? just unhook the connections, draw up the pipes and turn the tracks like a Sherman tank.

Already happening!

They 'walk' on pads similar to walking a Giant Earth Mover (think 'Big Muskie' or the 'GEM of Egypt', only these drilling rigs are a bit smaller).

Four pads around the substructure of the rig are used to move the substructure, derrick, draw works, doghouse, etc. from one wellhead to another on the pad. Usually the distance between wellheads is on the order of 30 feet, and the walk (with the derrick full of drill pipe) takes about half a day.

The mud tanks, light plant, and pumps remain in situ. Mud return to the shale shakers is accomplished with a manifold which can be extended out as far along the pad as the rig is moved.

The pumps are attached by lines which can be added to or shortened as needed, as are the accumulator lines for the BOP. Electrical cables are kept on a trolley system which allows them to be extended or retracted in an orderly fashion.

The BOP stack is moved to the active wellhead as the previously actively drilling wellhead is capped, and the stack is pressure tested as required by law before drilling.

Rig moves happen after a casing run, drilling all of the vertical and curve sections of the wells on the pad and running intermediate casing before changing out drill strings and drilling the laterals.

This allows a number of wells to be drilled from a relatively small pad, the wells go out in different directions below the Last Charles Salt, usually somewhere in the Lodgepole Formation, and are steered to fit the drilling plan.

This way, four wells can be drilled with about 9500 feet of lateral in the target for a 1280 acre (two section) spacing.

Considering there are currently three levels of interest: the Middle Bakken (between the upper and lower Bakken Shales), the upper Three Forks (aka: "First Bench"), and in some areas, the Three Forks some 50+ feet below the top (aka:"second bench"), that makes 8 to 12 wells per lease with between 76,000 and 114,000 feet of 6-inch diameter wellbore through productive rock, if all goes well while steering the well.

In the 'bad old days', on a 160 acre spacing, eight vertical wells could be drilled in the same lease space, with a whopping 160 or so feet of Bakken exposure, and 800 feet of combined first and second bench Three Forks exposed.

It is a huge difference, and though the oil has been there and noted, and even produced in a few wells on the Nesson Anticline, the Billings Nose, and the Sannish Field, the technology has made production possible on the scale it is, with the Bakken topping 1 billion barrels of oil produced just recently, and still going strong.

The positive impact is that (aside from oil production) multiple wells can be drilled from one location, reducing the 'footprint' of the wells. Similarly, production facilities take up less room overall, are centrally located, and that cuts down on feeder pipelines and road needed. One rig move from pad to pad requires trucking and complete rig down as opposed to four moves from well to well, and drill strings only need to be changed out once on the pad. So costs are cut, and time is saved.

As ever, those changes have some impact on other specialized areas, and the rig move companies, trucking, and laydown crews (who specialize in laying down the 30 ft. sections of drill pipe) have had less business, but everyone else seems to be running pretty much at capacity.

97 posted on 05/22/2014 9:02:41 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: American Constitutionalist

There may have been, but apparently they got over it fast. That was under Clinton, and I always suspected it might have been a way to injure the industry and the overwhelming number of Conservatives in it.


98 posted on 05/22/2014 9:04:56 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

They are doing a lot of drilling in Wyoming and are very happy.Another 4 miles down is some more.


99 posted on 05/22/2014 9:09:03 PM PDT by Big Horn (Rebuild the GOP to a conservative party)
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To: American Constitutionalist

Not an option.


100 posted on 05/23/2014 5:18:30 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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