Posted on 05/22/2014 12:49:20 PM PDT by thackney
African crude oil exports to the United States averaged 170,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) for the first four months of 2014 as rapidly rising U.S. crude production has reduced U.S. refiner demand for imported light sweet crude oil. Historically, U.S. refiners have been major consumers of African crude oil, primarily light sweet crude from Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola, with the United States taking 2 million bbl/d, or about one-quarter, of African crude exports as recently as 2010. African exports to other global regions reflect both changes in exports to the United States and the repeated and extended disruptions in Libyan production that have occurred since 2011. African crude that until recently flowed to the United States has been diverted to serve European markets that have historically been served by Libya and to supply increased demand in Asian markets where, despite Libyan disruptions, deliveries of African crude have increased (Figure 1).
European refiners have historically imported substantial volumes of light sweet crude oil from Africa (2.2 million bbl/d in 2010), including over three-quarters of Libyan exports (1.1 million bbl/d in 2010). With most Libyan crude oil off the market, exports to Europe from the rest of Africa have increased by more than 700,000 bbl/d from 2010. European imports of crude oil from Africa have also increased to offset the 900,000 bbl/d decline in North Sea crude oil production since 2010. As a result, despite much lower imports of Libyan crude oil, total European imports of African crude oil in 2014 have fallen by only 100,000 bbl/d since 2010.
African crude exports to Asia have increased by more than 200,000 bbl/d since 2010. So far in 2014, exports to Asia from African countries other than Libya have increased by 400,000 bbl/d compared to 2010 levels, more than offsetting the decline in Libyan supply to Asia (Figure 2). Higher refinery runs to satisfy growing regional petroleum product demand have increased crude flows to Asia.
China imported more than 1.2 million bbl/d of crude oil from Africa during the first four months of 2014, 22% of total African crude oil exports, and is now the world´s largest importer of African crude oil. Growth in demand for oil products and the expansion of Chinese refining capacity, which increased by 900,000 bbl/d in 2013 and is expected to increase by an additional 500,000 bbl/d in 2014, have driven rising Chinese demand for crude oil imports.
With U.S. crude production expected to increase by an additional 1 million bbl/d in 2014, it is likely that U.S. imports of African crude oil will remain low compared to historic levels. However, refiner crude selection decisions are based on relative crude economics, and U.S. refiners could import additional African crude oil should the economics of African crude streams become more favorable.
The level of demand for African crude in Europe is also somewhat uncertain. EIA´s May Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts European demand to fall in 2014 and stagnate in 2015, which would limit European refiners´ demand for crude. Perhaps the most important question surrounding the flow of African crude oil to global markets is how global oil trade flows would accommodate the return of substantial Libyan exports. Such production would likely displace current European demand for crude from other African producers. Under such circumstances, Asian markets, which together with the Middle East are expected to account for much of the expected growth in global oil demand, would likely be an increasingly important outlet for African light sweet crudes.
Bush had very close ties to Africa. Obama seems to have contempt for Africa, and launched a war against an African country.
That’s waysis!...............
I think it is simply the US shale oil production is mostly light sweet and pushing out imports of the same.
Refineries that were upgraded to take heavy, sour oil still run most economically on heavy sour.
The biggest drop in crude oil imports is from light sweet.
I am much more interested in Arab Opec oil, and would hope that the combination of US, Mexican, Brazilian, Venezuelan and Canadian oil would bust wide open OPEC cartel.
Also, I want us off Arab oil, so the terrorists have no beef with the USA since we won’t need to use troops to keep open access to Arab oil.
How many Americans have to die and be wounded for people who hate us enough to call us the great Satan, and send terrorists half way around the world to kill us.
Plus, for as long as OPEC has been around we have been paying Mafia type prices for our oil
I think we’re heading nicely in the direction you describe (despite the efforts of the regime to prevent it).
Of course the Chinese are picking up any slack oil availability.
It may be fun to watch the Chicom / Arab dynamic down the road.
Right you are. The Chinese have a very elitist attitude and consider everyone there inferior, I don't think the Arab world will accept that and we could see a little saber rattling (from both). And when you through religion into the mix, we could see a Chinese attempted take over in the middle east (a la Nexen in the best case, invasion in the worst).
While the US basically kisses Arab @ss, the ChiComs will kick Arab @ss.
At least that’s my perception.
The Keystone XL pipeline would do more to displace the heavies we get from Saudi and the like.
That said, those imports have dropped some as well, just not as much as the light, sweet.
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