"I just don't know what went wrong!"
The vast bulk of production problems in California is political, not technical. With “Moonbeam” Brown running the state, and “Bat$#!t” Obama running the country, the best estimate of oil production California is ZERO.
I am certain the earlier number is the more accurate one.
In any event, we need to develop it and see.
With the government we have today, any report must be suspect of being corrupted for political purposes.
My guess is that technologies will continue to improve, that 600 million barrel number will go up over time, and should prices rise, more effort will be brought to bear on the problem of recovering this oil.
I’m guessing the recoverables are still there, it is just that the industry will make prognosticated adjustments according to regulatory environment.
Example: Formation A, when frac’d, has 5 MMM BBL recoverable reserves. But, state and local regulation will “stay” any frac activity and those hydrocarbons can no longer be considered ^recoverable^.
Industry says, “We must downgrade our estimates.”
Is it just me or is the tone here “this one instance of fracking estimates is bad, therefore fracking is bad”?
Coming from an administration known for cooking numbers . . .
"I just don't know what went wrong!"
"...new competition from alternative sources, namely solar and wind..."
What I think they meant to say: "...additional taxpayer subsidies of solar and wind..."
I thought light vehicles in the US only accounted for about 15% of oil demand?
“The majority of oil produced from the Monterey appears to have migrated, owing to the fractured nature of much of the Monterey. The existence of very extensive areas of uplifted mature source rock with non-migrated oil comparable to plays like the Bakken is highly speculative.”
That would seem to be the “money” quote.
California. ‘Nuff said.