Pollsters are like pitchers or batters - the team only matters at the moment, what counts is the stats.
No, you're wrong. It depends on what stats (context) and at what moment. In baseball, all that should matter is winning the World Series. Everything else is secondary including stats. Not even runs scored is an important figure. A World Series can be won with 4 runs in 4 games and that's a pathetic figure in total runs.
There's plenty of history where a team with lesser stats wins the World Series. And there are many explanations for this such as the league the winners came from and the annealing process of statistics experienced from such league.
Nate isn’t perfect, but if this was baseball he’d be a 300+ batter.
Ken Griffey Jr and ARod were once together at the same time on the same team and were consistently 40+ home run hitters with well over 300 batting averages in same seasons for the Seattle Mariners, yet the team finished in the cellar if not close to it. Statistics only have meaning in context.
In the case of Silver's remarks concerning the Tea Party, the remarks are not statistical, they are merely remarks of an observation of irrelevance to the political process based on nebulous definitions, categorizations, and outcomes. His remarks could be characterized by the quote coined by some politician as a "nothing-burger". The only thing that sticks out is the title, and it is devoid of serious analysis or purpose, not to mention its false inference.
Michael Barone was once upon a time a star prognosticator and diviner of political outcomes. He's since crashed and burned. Statistically we can say he had a nice run. But his run could have been a random draw based on a universe of methods; in other words his models were false but surprisingly correct. All models are false but some are useful
Silver really hasn't had much more success than other prognosticators. Based on historical records and demographics, the same results have been produced by many contemporaries to Silver.
The real statistic to watch that is relevant to Silver's foul title is the number of times those in the media have professed the death of the Tea Party.
I will defer to you :-) My comments about pollsters in general is more about the fact that the ones I’ve known and worked with would rather be right than be ideologically correct. Good points all, Nate could just be lucky. Time will tell.
Regards, and thanks for an enlightening post.