In the Williston basin, the geology is relatively simple so one can drill laterals 2 miles into a very thin zone that is less than 35’ thick.
Two things here:
1. It is only 35’ thick, so the Oil In Place is not all that much. The reason it produces at such good rates is the presence of A. a high quality (+40 API) oil. B. significant overpressure and C. most importantly, lots of natural fractures. These fractures are caused by the stresses placed on the brittle interval sandwiched between two world-class source-rock shales as the oil exits the shales.
2. the Permian has a much more complex lithologic extent, causing well laterals to not stay in zone nearly as much as the target zone comes and goes. One cannot frac into the shales here and expect to get much oil.
How much oil is anybody’s guess. My own is that we are reaching the limits of peak production as infill drilling occurs and we find interference between wells(which means the new wells are competing with older wells for same oil).
How much oil is anybody’s guess. My own is that we are reaching the limits of peak production as infill drilling occurs and we find interference between wells(which means the new wells are competing with older wells for same oil).
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Does this mean you don’t buy Continental’s claims that their new spacing and methods will significantly increase their yields perhaps to as much as 50% of oil in place — as you mentioned earlier on the thread?