[SoConPubbie]

Obama took 43% of the vote in 2012. Very plausible for Dem pickup.

Boy, is that weak.

[MDspinboyredux]

Not really, if taken with the other considerations in my post.

I bet Cantor was pretty confident going into the primary too. Look how that turned out.

Run a solid race, avoid making novice gaffes and don’t fark it up.