Posted on 06/12/2014 10:13:09 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Eric Cantor's loss in the Republican primary Tuesday night sent shockwaves through the establishments of both parties. The previously dominant "Tea Party is dead" narrative has been unceremoniously dumped. Some in the media seem to be pursuing two new storylines: “Support for immigration reform dooms Republicans” and “the Tea Party is actually dominant in the Republican Party.”
But both of these explanations run into problems. Lindsey Graham is one of the faces of immigration reform, and he won his primary handily. The “inmates running the asylum” narrative runs into the very real establishment wins from earlier in the cycle -- the same wins that gave rise to the “Tea Party is dead” storyline.
In truth, I think the explanation is a bit simpler than all of that, and is more universal than the simplistic “immigration reform/Tea Party” narratives suggest. It is as follows: We are in a deeply anti-Washington environment, both throughout the country and in the Republican Party in particular. In this environment, representatives who pay insufficient attention to what is going on in their districts are in grave danger of losing. There are two components to this explanation.
First, analysts need to understand that the Republican base is furious with the Republican establishment, especially over the Bush years. From the point of view of conservatives I’ve spoken with, the early- to mid-2000s look like this: Voters gave Republicans control of Congress and the presidency for the longest stretch since the 1920s.
And what do Republicans have to show for it? Temporary tax cuts, No Child Left Behind, the Medicare prescription drug benefit, a new Cabinet department, increased federal spending, TARP, and repeated attempts at immigration reform. Basically, despite a historic opportunity to shrink government, almost everything that the GOP establishment achieved during that time moved the needle leftward
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
EXACTLY.
And for the Republican Party to follow up the Bush administration with the nominations of two of the most leftist candidates we've seen in recent decades was an absolute disgrace that exposed the big-government, globalist agenda of the GOP.
It means you can fool some of the people some of the time
or you can fool most of the people most of the time .. IF YOU OWN THE MEDIA !
ESPECIALLY, IF THEY GET THEIR NEWS ON 30 SECOND SOUND-BYTES from MSM !!
THhinking people vote Coservative
Liberal people are lazy and let others do the thinking for them !
ping to some additional autopsy analysis ...
It's hard to get arrested in a crowd of 7 candidates (Graham included.)
Excellent read.
He goes into all this stuff about “caring”. I think he’s wrong.
I think it is about having a viable alternative. If an opponent is a doofus, then the incumbent is the better choice, even if the electorate really doesn’t like him that much. Lindsay Graham had 5 or 6 opponents, and even if only a few were doofuses, they have to work hard not to blend in. So, Graham appeared to be the reasonable one, and he adroitly applied the GOP-E tactic of dividing the enemy.
Cantor had a credible opponent; Cantor wasn’t liked. Cantor lost. Had his opponent been a doofus, Cantor would have won.
I think a lot of it was Virginians outraged that NOVA (along with the RAT-financed Libertarian) put McCauliffe in the governor’s mansion. I wish VA could cut NOVA off, kick it out.
Graham is a SITTING US SENATOR and was only able to barely win by 6 points...
That’s not a ringing endorsement
There is a lot of focus on the "tea party". The tea party name has been co-opted and maybe compromised.
The real power is "We The People" and they are starting to assert themselves.
It means a couple of things:
(1) It is a far easier to unseat an incumbent congressman than a US senator.
(2) It easier to unseat an incumbent when the opposition to him is united behind a single person. I believe Graham had six opponents.
(3) It helps to receive a lot free air time as Brat did on conservative talk radio-—which helped make up for his lack of resources in his campaign account.
(4) It helps to run in a conservative leaning district with a low turn out in which activists and dedicated voters can sometimes prevail.
(5) It helps to have an issue-—in this case illegal immigration-—which sets you apart from your opponent.
You cannot compare a congressional district to a state, and yet, this guy does. It’s phony to start.
Moreover, this is comparing a small, compact highly educated district in an area obsessed with government and politics - to a state that has wide rural areas and is not in the shadow of DC.
Then you have the dynamics: Lee Bright was clearly the dominant challenger, and was from the start. No one really attacked Graham and Obama the way Bright did. But he was always terribly underfunded.
And for some reason, outside groups and talk radio never got into the SC race. Talk radio pushed Brat over the top.
More differences here than similiarities.
One State has informed voters, the other State has uninformed voters. Among other problems.
It means an upset in an election with 65,000 voters does not indicate any kind of national trend about anything.
The people still have a say over Congress. For now.
Sorry - NOVA?
JACK and POOP. That’s what it means. People just vote for name recognition almost all the time. Am I cynical? Yes.
A great part in the Graham win was name recognition.
He had 6 challengers. Thus, the field was watered down to begin with. How many had state-wide name recognition? What were their stands on issues?
Those 6 challengers just weakened the field.
Has they coalesced around one or two challengers, those challengers might have been more able to stand out in contrast to Graham. Six saying ‘I am not Graham’ is ineffectual.
And, of course, Graham was racing to the right, even claiming to be conservative.
It means to beat an incumbent you shouldn’t have six opponents splitting the vote. Coalesce around one decent if imperfect person and boot the liberal.
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