I don’t disagree with you on any of that.
This year may wind up being a wild ride for oil.
Back in 2008 as I recall the price of oil shot up over 120 @ barrel. That summer gas prices were way high.
But the high oil prices choked the economy and the economy tanked forcing down oil prices to a big low.
I don’t think that will happen this time. There’s enough excess capacity in Saudi Arabia to make up for most of any lost Iraqi production.
So for through this year there’s a huge tail wind behind the best drilling companies and a forgiving price environment for 2nd-6th tier drillers and wildcatters.