Most of the national media and all of the political operatives are twisting the facts of this election to help influence the outcome. The reality is that this race has some very important structural components that makes it very tough for Cochran to come out on top.
First, the Democrat Party in Mississippi is a dysfunctional rump of its former self. Its membership consists of blacks and liberal white professors and the earth muffin types who hang around colleges towns and beaches. The professors have already voted and the earth muffins don’t have any motivation to do so. Those blacks who will go to the polls have already done so, mostly in the Democrat Primary. All of these voters are relegated to the sidelines.
Second. Cochran is an incumbent who failed to get 50%. His supporters showed up for the primary, so how is he going to come up with enough new voters to get over 50%. Very unlikely.
Third. He has never had to campaign and doesn’t know how. Unless he is sent on a fact finding tour of the Galapagos Islands he is going to make more mistakes and they are going to continue to cost him.
Fourth. The momentum is all on McDaniels side. Cantor’s defeat reinforces the populist sentiment that entrenched Washington politicians are not properly representing the folks back home. Cochran is a poster child for that sterotype.
Finally. When you are running in a wave election, it doesn’t help when your record shows that your votes put you squarely on the slide that is about to get swamped. People are now looking at that record and it won’t help him.
Polls aside, I don’t think that Cochran can overcome the things that are stacked against him.