A Moment Of Truth From JPM: "It's Hard To See The Recent Growth-Inflation Mix

Full Title: A Moment Of Truth From JPM: "It's Hard To See The Recent Growth-Inflation Mix As Anything Other Than Discouraging"

Both the headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in firmer than expected in May. The CPI increased 0.35% (2.1% over year-ago), and the ex-food and energy core CPI rose 0.26% (2.0% over year-ago), the largest one-month increase for this measure since October 2009. Over the past three months the core CPI is now up 2.8% annualized. By our estimate this implies a 0.16% increase for May in the Fed's preferred core PCE measure of inflation, which would take the year-ago increase up to 1.5%.

The recent move higher in inflation makes the Fed outlook more interesting. As for tomorrow, the current statement language on inflation is so generic that it doesn't have to be modified, though the recent news could increase the odds that an amendment could me made to mention inflation moving back towards the Committee's longer-run objective.

The dots are submitted at the beginning of the two-day meeting, which starts at 10am today, so today's print shouldn't have a material impact on the dot plot (recall that the midpoint of the core PCE projection for 4Q14 at the March meeting was 1.5% -- which should be achieved in May -- we have already been expecting a modest move higher in tomorrow's projection). At the margin, today's inflation print further tilts the odds toward an earlier first rate hike relative to our current 4Q15 call....The higher-than-anticipated headline PCE inflation implication (our reading is +0.22%), implies lower real consumption spending growth in May, we think only up 0.1% now. Through the first five months of the year the headline CPI is up at a 2.6% annual rate, even though first half GDP growth may come in around 0.5% annualized....

While some may cheer an earlier Fed rate hike, its hard to see the recent growth-inflation mix as anything other than discouraging.

Fear not: we are confident many will try because, clearly, it's the blamy(sic) spring's fault.

Plus or minus .15 or .22 percent and declaring it to be a 2% increase over another round of bogus crap is laughable.

Why people read this crap escapes me. And, I just read it too.

Enough already, I can produce rounding errors in the 3-5% range all day long and no one, no one would be able to call BS on it.

This is a waste of time. People will know when things get better. THEY WILL BE ABLE TO FIND WORK.

That was fun, first time I have posted any comment using all Caps since, well, since, I can’t remember.

I suppose that would be reasonable except for the fact that the “gubmint” can make up any number they find expedient.

How do you or I know what the real numbersd are? Short answer, we cannot know what the real numbers are.

For God’s sake, we are in the depths of a great depression and somehow unemployment keeps dropping. Food, which we all buy increases weekly and monthly, fuel increases, more and more households have no one employed in the household, 20% of all households, no one working. No one.

But, but, but unemployment is down to 6.3%.

How bad are the real numbers my friend? You could hazard a guess I suppose. Based on what? What the gubmint publishes?

Goebbels would love the American media, so compliant, so unquestioning, so loyal, we love you kenyan. We’ll protect you from the vermin who see what you are doing and protest against it.

I know, let’s come up with new nutritional guidelines. Humans have somehow amanaged for millenia without the gubmint telling us how many calories, consisting of what foods.

Oh, Oh, Oh, I know!!!!! What kind of car should I drive? How do you teach Reading, writing, and Arithmetic?

Gubmint knows. That is why we are so illiterate, Johnny can’t spell, Jill can’t add numbers, and Joan cannot construct a coherent sentence much less a paragraph.

Oh yes, we can count on the gubmint to tell us who, what, where, when, why, and how. And even if they make it all up, who cares?

Get the EBT card, get the section 8, get WIC and the ADC, you are well taken care of and we have the statistics to prove that every day things are just getting better and better.

Don’t like it? Call the GD gubmint on your Obama phone.

Hear that? Satan is laughing at us. Hard.

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