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The Bakken gets bigger - likely a LOT bigger
Oil Voice ^ | June 13, 2014 | Keith Schaefer

Posted on 06/19/2014 12:56:00 PM PDT by george76

Crescent Point’s Torquay Discovery Reignites Southeast Saskatchewan.

Just when you thought The Bakken couldn’t get any better—it does.

Oil producers are now “cracking the code” on the Torquay, or Three Forks formation below the Bakken, and coming up with incredible economics—these wells are paying back in only seven months.

This news has completely re-invigorated the Canadian side of the Bakken. And on the US side, the Three Forks is causing industry to leap-frog estimates of the amount of recoverable oil available–by about 57%!

It’s hard to imagine that the #1 oil play in all of North America could have such a huge increase in size—usually this happens in increments. This map from the Province of Manitoba shows how much potential theTorquay/Three Forks has—it ranges from 1.5 – 7 x as thick as the Bakken!

(Excerpt) Read more at oilvoice.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Canada; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; US: Alaska; US: Montana; US: Nebraska; US: North Dakota; US: South Dakota; US: Wyoming
KEYWORDS: bakken; energy; oil

1 posted on 06/19/2014 12:56:00 PM PDT by george76
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To: george76

Time for a jugg-eared marxist executive order!


2 posted on 06/19/2014 12:56:59 PM PDT by TurboZamboni (Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.-JFK)
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To: george76; thackney

whacchya think?


3 posted on 06/19/2014 12:57:26 PM PDT by gaijin
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To: george76

Good news. Odingo will do his best to squash it, does not want the muslims to see oil prices drop in their hellish part of the world.


4 posted on 06/19/2014 12:58:27 PM PDT by the anti-mahdi
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To: george76

5 posted on 06/19/2014 12:59:14 PM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: gaijin

The theme song!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cg2G8Tx8Mqk


6 posted on 06/19/2014 1:00:14 PM PDT by Dr. Bogus Pachysandra ( Ya can't pick up a turd by the clean end!)
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To: george76

which means more trains and oil cars..

Oh no,, what will Obama do now?


7 posted on 06/19/2014 1:01:09 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi - Revolution is a'brewin!!!)
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To: TurboZamboni

lol.. how about an air uhh oil marshal on every tanker car?


8 posted on 06/19/2014 1:02:18 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi - Revolution is a'brewin!!!)
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To: NormsRevenge

Make sure he know how to set the break before leaving to sleep.


9 posted on 06/19/2014 1:11:35 PM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: george76

Even if we develop our own oil resources, the price of finished products will, most likely not go down much.

Our oil companies are run by businessmen first and national interests are considered secondary.

Why should they sell the gasoline here in the country when they can sell it in Europe for a much higher price?


10 posted on 06/19/2014 1:12:36 PM PDT by 353FMG
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To: gaijin; Smokin' Joe
Three forks production has been growing for a while. Smokin' Joe could tell more than I about the Williston Basin area.


11 posted on 06/19/2014 1:13:52 PM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: NormsRevenge

brake, not break, before he goes on break...


12 posted on 06/19/2014 1:14:38 PM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: george76

RELEASE THE BAKKEN!!


13 posted on 06/19/2014 1:15:51 PM PDT by freedomlover
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To: freedomlover

Get KRAKKEN IN THE BAKKEN!.................


14 posted on 06/19/2014 1:18:01 PM PDT by Red Badger (Soon there will be another American Civil War. Will make the first one seem like a Tea Party........)
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To: NormsRevenge
which means more trains and oil cars.. Oh no,, what will Obama do now?

This sounds like a job for... the TSA!

-PJ

15 posted on 06/19/2014 1:28:28 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

This sounds like a job for... the TSA!

- - - -

There will be involvement probably, if only indirectly.

I do work at a natural gas liquids marine terminal. They now require a Transportation Worker Identification Credential (TWIC) card to get in the facility unescorted which is provided by the TSA. Technically, I’m part of them now, just not on their payroll. But they can yank my clearance.

http://www.tsa.gov/stakeholders/transportation-worker-identification-credential-twic%C2%AE


16 posted on 06/19/2014 1:40:25 PM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: Political Junkie Too

The Transportation Systems Sector-Specific Plan (SSP) is the strategic plan for the sector fulfilling the requirements of Homeland Security Presidential Directive 7 (HSPD-7): Critical Infrastructure Identification, Prioritization, and Protection; and the requirements of the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 (as amended by the 9/11 Commission Act) for the National Strategy for Transportation Security (NSTS). The SSP consists of a base plan and six modal annexes. The modal annexes for mass transit, maritime, and railroads (including freight and passenger rail) also consolidate strategic planning and infrastructure protection requirements.

http://www.tsa.gov/sites/default/files/assets/pdf/transportation_systems_ssp_web.pdf


17 posted on 06/19/2014 1:43:59 PM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: gaijin

Bakken petroleum system is noted for low primary recovery -rates of 3~5% of the original oil in place

How much additional oil can be extracted using secondary and tertiary techniques???

Technology will make the difference. There is a lot of oil left in the ground, but it ain’t going to be easy (or cheap) to get the rest out, and you will never come close to getting it all.


18 posted on 06/19/2014 1:58:54 PM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: Political Junkie Too

TSA!! HaHaHa!! Don’t we still have a DoT division or sumthin’? Or have they morphed and merged and borg’d? Who controls oil and gas pipelines these days? DoE, Interior, EPA?? Who knows.

How many agencies have been involved to date with the exploitation of the Bakken?


19 posted on 06/19/2014 4:38:23 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi - Revolution is a'brewin!!!)
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To: NormsRevenge
I'm serious. I bet Obama is thinking of ways of crippling the oil railcar transportion industry so that he can slow down the energy exploitation of the United States.

I bet he can use his pen and phone to sic the TSA on the railroads.

-PJ

20 posted on 06/19/2014 4:52:08 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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To: gaijin; thackney; bestintxas; Kennard; nuke rocketeer; crusty old prospector

I think that continental started talking about their great results in the three forks strata only last fall sometime. continental is by reputation the most forward advanced company in the basin.
Therefor its reasonable to assess that foreword looking projections for production number increases for the baaken don’t include the three forks formation.

Since the three forks formation looks like its bigger than the bakken—and drilling is still in more of the exploratory phase—according to the article

—then high production rate growth in the bakken/three forks formation after 2016 becomes much more possible.

This may be as big a story over the next 12 months as the Permian.

We’ll see.

More data points please.


21 posted on 06/19/2014 9:28:31 PM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: ckilmer
Williston Three Forks/Sanish interval tapped
http://www.ogj.com/articles/2008/07/williston-three-forks-sanish-interval-tapped.html

07/10/2008 Therefor its reasonable to assess that foreword looking projections for production number increases for the baaken don’t include the three forks formation.

Your assumption is not correct.

Bakken-Three Forks has been combined in discussions for years now. Here is a presentation by the North Dakota Industrial Commission, Department of Mineral Resources, Oil and Gas Division. They continue to lump these two together.

Since the three forks formation looks like its bigger than the bakken

Can you explain where you see that?

22 posted on 06/20/2014 4:49:06 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: ckilmer
Assessment of Undiscovered Oil Resources in the Bakken and Three Forks Formations, Williston Basin Province, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota, 2013
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2013/3013/fs2013-3013.pdf
23 posted on 06/20/2014 4:59:32 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney
Williston Three Forks/Sanish interval tapped http://www.ogj.com/articles/2008/07/williston-three-forks-sanish-interval-tapped.html

07/10/2008 Therefor its reasonable to assess that foreword looking projections for production number increases for the baaken don’t include the three forks formation.

Your assumption is not correct.

...................

That article is dated 2008. They only first tapped into the top layer of the three forks formation. They had no idea what was down there. The answer to your questions is on the second page of the article. The EIA has only included the top layer of the three forks formation is their estimates. Not the bottom layers which continental started talking about last fall. Here's the relevant quotes from the article.

Last year, the US Geological Service (USGC) updated its assessment to include the upper part of the Torquay, about 50 feet in thickness. For the two formations, the US Geological Service USGS estimates mean recoverable oil resources of 7.38 billion barrels. Estimates for the Torquay account for 3.7 billion bbl.

These estimates seem very conservative to Continental Resources; the largest acreage holder in the Bakken is more optimistic about the total amount of oil that could ultimately be recovered.

In its own assessment, Continental believes that including the deeper parts of the Three Forks increases the total amount of oil originally in place (OOIP) from 577 billion barrels of oil to 903 billion, and the amount that is technically recoverable from 20 billion barrels to as much as 32 billion, 36 billion or even 45 billion.

tight oil plays

Only the upper layer (TF1) of the Torquay has been de-risked leaving the remaining 3 layers up for exploration. Continental has a pretty good reason to be optimistic. The company got impressive IP rates from drilling into thelower layers of the Torquay/Three Forks formation in McKenzie Country, North Dakota.

24 posted on 06/20/2014 5:05:57 AM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: ckilmer

What has been known about the Three Forks, has been included in the assessment.

They have learned more since then and will continue to learn more.

But to say it was not included is not correct.


25 posted on 06/20/2014 5:09:29 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

What has been known about the Three Forks, has been included in the assessment.

They have learned more since then and will continue to learn more.

But to say it was not included is not correct.
.............

Maybe the article is wrong. All I’m doing is repeating what the article says. Here,I’ll try again.

The Bakken formation is actually three layers of rock—Upper, Middle and Lower–and is situated above theTorquay/Three Forks. The underlying Torquay actually has four layers of tight rock identified as TF1 (upper layer), TF2, TF3 and TF4 (deepest layer).

Last year, the US Geological Service (USGC) updated its assessment to include the upper part of the Torquay, about 50 feet in thickness. For the two formations, the US Geological Service USGS estimates mean recoverable oil resources of 7.38 billion barrels. Estimates for the Torquay account for 3.7 billion bbl.

These estimates seem very conservative to Continental Resources; the largest acreage holder in the Bakken is more optimistic about the total amount of oil that could ultimately be recovered.

In its own assessment, Continental believes that including the deeper parts of the Three Forks increases the total amount of oil originally in place (OOIP) from 577 billion barrels of oil to 903 billion, and the amount that is technically recoverable from 20 billion barrels to as much as 32 billion, 36 billion or even 45 billion.

Only the upper layer (TF1) of the Torquay has been de-risked leaving the remaining 3 layers up for exploration. Continental has a pretty good reason to be optimistic. The company got impressive IP rates from drilling into thelower layers of the Torquay/Three Forks formation in McKenzie Country, North Dakota.
http://www.oilvoice.com/n/The_Bakken_gets_bigger_likely_a_LOT_bigger/bbfad5f6eac3.aspx?ovindex=2#gsc.tab=0


26 posted on 06/20/2014 5:18:12 AM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: ckilmer

Therefor its reasonable to assess that foreword looking projections for production number increases for the baaken don’t include the three forks formation.

- - - - - -

Drilling and production in the Three Forks has been going on for several years. I don’t find you assumption reasonable at all.


27 posted on 06/20/2014 5:23:07 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

We only started hearing about the lower three layers of the three forks formation from continental last fall. I think further some intimations of the implications of continentals exploratory wells into the lower three layers of the three forks formations were included in two separate reports: one by credit suisse and the other by...maybe morgan stanley or goldman sachs that came out a few months later.

These reports caused the first wave or revisions upward by 100k annually for the bakken/three forks production after then end of 2015 for the period 2016-2020. (which were posted and we talked about a couple weeks ago.)


28 posted on 06/20/2014 5:29:52 AM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: thackney

Therefor its reasonable to assess that foreword looking projections for production number increases for the baaken don’t include the three forks formation.

- - - - - -

Drilling and production in the Three Forks has been going on for several years. I don’t find you assumption reasonable at all.
...............
Well, yes I do over state the point. But it looks like the drilling has all been in the upper layer of the three forks formation and not in the lower three layers of the three forks formation—which caused the shift upwards of estimates in the last 10 months or so.


29 posted on 06/20/2014 5:32:48 AM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: ckilmer

Yes, the assessment will grow/shrink as they learn more. And they will likely lag 2~3 years in published public assessment to knowledge available.

Just like has always happened.

Some go up, some go down.


30 posted on 06/20/2014 5:36:51 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: ckilmer
The layers in the Three Forks are commonly denoted as 1st bench, 2nd bench, etc., at least locally.

Back in the bad old days of working vertical wells I noted shows in the first bench of the Three Forks almost routinely, but like the Middle Bakken, either testing the formation or the tight nature of the formation did not permit production from a vertical wellbore.

With horizontal drilling, you can open up miles (literally) of wellbore in a relatively tight or thin formation and render it productive, especially with a good frac.

We also noted shows of oil and gas in the Second bench in some places, and more rarely the third bench (roughly 100 feet below the base of the Lower Bakken Shale).

I doubt the Fourth bench will do much in most areas, but it isn't my job to bet against possible production.

The Bakken has changed the way people look at possibilities in the oil patch.

In terms of overall impact on reserves, I would say offhand that in northern Dunn County, McKenzie, Southeastern Williams County, and in Western Mountrail County, the second bench will likely produce best, but not as consistently as the first bench (other hotspots are definitely possible).

31 posted on 06/20/2014 5:38:04 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: ckilmer
We only started hearing about the lower three layers of the three forks formation from continental last fall.

That would depend upon your source of information.

THREE FORKS FORMATION LOG TO CORE CORRELATION
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/ndgs/documents/Publication_List/pdf/geoinv/GI_75.pdf
2009

32 posted on 06/20/2014 5:39:27 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: ckilmer
The Bakken formation is actually three layers of rock—Upper, Middle and Lower–and is situated above theTorquay/Three Forks.

Also accurate. The Upper Bakken is an organic rich shale.

The Middle Bakken is a hodgepodge of interbedded/interlaminated dolomite, sandstone, siltstone, and fragmental limestone with an argillaceous component, which varies by locale.

The Lower Bakken is another organic rich shale.

Below that, you have the upper bench of the Three Forks.

(In some locales there is a 2-8 foot layer in between referred to as the Pronghorn, but that is not as extensive, and I only mention it because it is likely you will run across a reference to it somewhere. That is likely to produce as well, where developed.)

The Bakken Shales (upper and lower) are the source rock for the system, the tight reservoirs in the Middle Bakken and the benches of the Three Forks are the targets.

33 posted on 06/20/2014 5:54:50 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: thackney

Yes, the assessment will grow/shrink as they learn more. And they will likely lag 2~3 years in published public assessment to knowledge available.
..............
So that makes two big stories: The Permian and Three Forks lower layers— whose end is as yet unknown—which if positive— will be publicly acknowledged by the EIA in the next year or three.

It may be 1-2 years for permian results to make their way into EIA estimates. And 2-3 years for Three Forks lower layers to make their way into EIA estimates.

Why will revised (upward/downward) EIA estimates for the Permian come out before the lower layers of the Three Forks formation.

Now remember Core Labs. They’re doing less work in the Bakken and more work in the Permian basin. I think you can roughly say that —when they say they’re a “reservoir optimization company” — the meaning of that word “optimize” is roughly congruent to the corporate speak word “derisking”.

The permian basin is currently being derisked/optimized—which means they are closer to high volume production—and the true dimensions of their commercially accessible oil will become known in the next 12 months or so..

The lower three layers of the three forks formation are not yet derisked/optimized — nor if you believe the implications of core labs numbers—have they yet been seriously engaged.


34 posted on 06/20/2014 5:59:36 AM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: ckilmer

“I think that continental started talking about their great results in the three forks strata only last fall sometime. continental is by reputation the most forward advanced company in the basin.
Therefor its reasonable to assess that foreword looking projections for production number increases for the baaken don’t include the three forks formation.

Since the three forks formation looks like its bigger than the bakken—and drilling is still in more of the exploratory phase—according to the article

—then high production rate growth in the bakken/three forks formation after 2016 becomes much more possible.

This may be as big a story over the next 12 months as the Permian.

We’ll see.

More data points please.”

Not true, as Continental years ago was already seeing the Three Forks. See http://www.nd.gov/ndic/ogrp/info/g-018-039-df.pdf

As far as forward-thinking companies go, Continental has a lot of acreage spread over many different areas and has been testing and publishing different testings like in link.

EOG is the company which found the most prolific field which excited everyone in the Bakken and has the most innovations in its development in the Bakken. It just chooses not to publish its results and focuses on the Eagleford rather than the Bakken.


35 posted on 06/20/2014 6:09:08 AM PDT by bestintxas (Every time a RINO bites the dust a founding father gets his wings)
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To: Smokin' Joe

“The Bakken formation is actually three layers of rock—Upper, Middle and Lower–and is situated above theTorquay/Three Forks.
Also accurate. The Upper Bakken is an organic rich shale.

The Middle Bakken is a hodgepodge of interbedded/interlaminated dolomite, sandstone, siltstone, and fragmental limestone with an argillaceous component, which varies by locale.

The Lower Bakken is another organic rich shale.

Below that, you have the upper bench of the Three Forks.

(In some locales there is a 2-8 foot layer in between referred to as the Pronghorn, but that is not as extensive, and I only mention it because it is likely you will run across a reference to it somewhere. That is likely to produce as well, where developed.)

The Bakken Shales (upper and lower) are the source rock for the system, the tight reservoirs in the Middle Bakken and the benches of the Three Forks are the targets. “

The Pronghorn is a particularly attractive interval as proven by Whiting in the areas it exists, and exceeds most of the Three Forks in productivity per well. See Bakken Update: The Pronghorn Sand Could Be The Best Pay Zone In The Williston Basin http://seekingalpha.com/article/607291-bakken-update-the-pronghorn-sand-could-be-the-best-pay-zone-in-the-williston-basin


36 posted on 06/20/2014 6:13:24 AM PDT by bestintxas (Every time a RINO bites the dust a founding father gets his wings)
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To: thackney

“Bakken petroleum system is noted for low primary recovery -rates of 3~5% of the original oil in place

How much additional oil can be extracted using secondary and tertiary techniques???

Technology will make the difference. There is a lot of oil left in the ground, but it ain’t going to be easy (or cheap) to get the rest out, and you will never come close to getting it all.”

Secondary and Tertiary have been tested, albeit gingerly, already. The Canadian Bakken has high enough permeability that waterflooding has been successful and gas injection has been tested with varying results.

South in US, Bakken has a lot less permeability and secondary/tertiary is a lot more difficult. Some testing has been done by EOG and others but results are not good.

Like other tite formations elsewhere, it is simply too difficult to inject fluids and have those fluids not follow fracture planes(natural or induced) rather than to sweep oil out of the rock itself. Best chance for recovery improvements lie with the drill bit and innovative ways to increasingly fracture the rock so as to increase effective permeability.


37 posted on 06/20/2014 6:19:32 AM PDT by bestintxas (Every time a RINO bites the dust a founding father gets his wings)
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To: bestintxas
I have seen it here and there, and it is great, but as a practical matter, steering a well in the Pronghorn and staying out of the Lower Bakken Shale is not the easiest of chores. Get into the Lower Shale, and you either sidetrack the well or risk getting stuck.

It is easier to run high in the first bench of the Three Forks.

It'll frac...

38 posted on 06/20/2014 6:29:20 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: bestintxas

Not true, as Continental years ago was already seeing the Three Forks. See http://www.nd.gov/ndic/ogrp/info/g-018-039-df.pdf
..............
read the article. it dates from 2008-9 the work was all in the top layer of three forks— where there is currently drilling.

What has caused the added interest is that continental last fall got successful results from the bottom three layers of three forks.


39 posted on 06/20/2014 9:46:15 AM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: gaijin; thackney; bestintxas; Kennard; nuke rocketeer; crusty old prospector; Smokin' Joe

This is a clearer explanation of what its about.
................
Testing new zones

Rick Bott, president and chief operating officer of Continental, said the company made strides in improving its understanding of the deeper benches of the Three Forks in 2013.

“We proved some big things,” Bott said in a February investor presentation. “We’ve proved there is good quality rock, we’ve proved that there’s oil in there, (and) we’ve proved that we can produce at commercial rates.”

The Bakken-Three Forks play, which stretches across portions of North Dakota and Montana, is stacked with different geologic layers, akin to a multilayer cake. The Upper, Middle, and Lower Bakken are closest to the surface, with the bulk of production coming from the Middle Bakken. Beneath the Lower Bakken are the first, second, third, and fourth benches of the Three Forks formation.

Commercial Three Forks production now comes from the first bench, but Continental in 2013 began pilot projects testing productivity of the lower three benches with encouraging results.

http://www.ogj.com/articles/uogr/print/volume-2/issue-2/bakken-leader-continental-resources-drills-deeper-into-three-forks-formation.html


40 posted on 06/20/2014 9:53:57 AM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: ckilmer

The project used a megapad containing 14 wells targeting multiple, stacked pay zones. Included were four wells targeting the Middle Bakken, three targeting the Three Forks 1, four targeting the Three Forks 2, and three targeting the Three Forks 3.

The unit, which spans 1,280 acres, tested at an initial combined monthly rate of 14,850 boe/d from all 14 wells.

- - - -

It is frustrating they only gave the combined data and not the individual.


41 posted on 06/20/2014 9:58:52 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: ckilmer
Thanks for the info. The project used a megapad containing 14 wells targeting multiple, stacked pay zones. Included were four wells targeting the Middle Bakken, three targeting the Three Forks 1, four targeting the Three Forks 2, and three targeting the Three Forks 3.

Which pretty much conforms with my observations. There are places where the third bench will have shows and likely be productive. I do not expect that to be as widespred as Second bench production, nor do I expect that to be as widespread as the first bench production. There are hotspots in the play which will produce from all three of those benches and possibly the fourth, but in my experience, I have not noted shows in the fourth bench in vertical wells. That doesn't mean they do not exist, just that the wells I worked were not in the areas where they do.

I have been working in the Williston Basin as a wellsite geologist since '79, and have been doing Bakken horizontals since 2000. I'm on a wellsite now.

I won't say I have described more Three Forks or Bakken section than everyone else, but I have done quite a bit over the last 14 years. Before horizontal wells really came into vogue (I have been working those since 1990) I had noted oil shows in the Bakken and Three Forks pretty consistently, as I mentioned. Running open hole drill stem tests on the formations was out of the question, generally, a combination of difficulty in getting a packer seat and the shale sloughing when the tool was opened, either plugging the tool or sticking it in the hole. Company hands would look at a geologist like Van Helsing looks at Dracula for even suggesting a DST, so the Bakken and Three Forks were pretty much relegated to salvage zones, to be perforated if the shows were really good after plugging a deeper objective.

One well vertical well I worked in 1980 was a Bakken producer, but that was pretty obvious, as shows go, making 500MCF (sweet gas) and 70 bbls of condensate a day out of 4 feet of perfs, done on my strip log because the e-logs were too gas invaded to be of much use. In those days that was considered a fairly good well up here.

Horizontal drilling has completely changed that perception.

42 posted on 06/20/2014 11:38:37 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: thackney

The unit, which spans 1,280 acres, tested at an initial combined monthly rate of 14,850 boe/d from all 14 wells.

- - - -

It is frustrating they only gave the combined data and not the individual.
....................
So lets presume the worst case. The profound success of one or more of the wells at one or more levels is covering up a poor performance of one or more wells at one or more levels.

Would I presume wrong if I presumed that with 14 wells on a pad, the cost per well goes down considerably. Such that even a well that brought up 400 boe/d would be economic—because the incremental cost of drilling another well is much less once the pad and set up is established and paid for.


43 posted on 06/20/2014 2:26:24 PM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: ckilmer
Would I presume wrong if I presumed that with 14 wells on a pad, the cost per well goes down considerably.

I don't think pad costs are significant.

But what does go down, assuming they are using something like a walker is the set-up & tear-down between wells. The wells themselves would have little changed.

The cost/time to tie into production, gas line flare, etc goes down with a combined service.

So lower cost, but not much lower, most of the money in the well hasn't changed.

44 posted on 06/20/2014 2:30:07 PM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

Ok thanks. take a look at Smokin’ Joe post at 42.

He’s been a long time in the Bakken.

His take is not out of line with EOG’s lightening up on Bakken and concentrating on Eagle Ford. Plus the fall off of Core Lab business in Bakken.

That is it may well be that the three forks formation is spotty—much spottier than the bakken levels above.


45 posted on 06/20/2014 4:51:02 PM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: thackney

So lower cost, but not much lower, most of the money in the well hasn’t changed.
...............
So when they use the word “economic” they mean the well is profitable but we don’t know how profitable. They would hide that little fact because?.....

More data please.


46 posted on 06/20/2014 5:33:34 PM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: ckilmer
They would hide that little fact because?.....

Because they don't likely know. Oil business economics is hit or miss sometimes on wells right next to each other. It is a higher risk business than most. That rock/shale has changes in geology sometimes in very short distances. It is not a uniform structure. Think of it as differences in soils, sands, hills, drainage on the surface occurring underground.

47 posted on 06/20/2014 6:57:34 PM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

“The project used a megapad containing 14 wells targeting multiple, stacked pay zones. Included were four wells targeting the Middle Bakken, three targeting the Three Forks 1, four targeting the Three Forks 2, and three targeting the Three Forks 3.”

Actually they used 5 different pads at Hawkinson

You can check it on NDIC website


48 posted on 06/20/2014 7:55:12 PM PDT by bestintxas (Every time a RINO bites the dust a founding father gets his wings)
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To: Smokin' Joe

“Which pretty much conforms with my observations. There are places where the third bench will have shows and likely be productive. I do not expect that to be as widespred as Second bench production, nor do I expect that to be as widespread as the first bench production. There are hotspots in the play which will produce from all three of those benches and possibly the fourth, but in my experience, I have not noted shows in the fourth bench in vertical wells. That doesn’t mean they do not exist, just that the wells I worked were not in the areas where they do.”

Am curious, do you ever see a lack of oil saturation in cores of lower benches of 3F that still produces satisfactory?

Many of the wells appear to be nonprospective so my conjecture is frac extending up to Middle Bakken.


49 posted on 06/20/2014 8:04:48 PM PDT by bestintxas (Every time a RINO bites the dust a founding father gets his wings)
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To: bestintxas
The places I did not see shows in the lower levels have not been tested with horizontal wells, so there is a problem with an absence of data.

Most places the Middle Bakken produces, the upper level of the Three Forks will likely do well also, because the Lower Bakken Shale is the source rock for the Three Forks oil, and the shale will have reached thermal maturity.

Whether that will extend down section into lower levels will depend on the amount of oil generated, natural fracturing (and structure) and may turn out to be at least partially structurally dependent, if for no other reason than the development of fractures on structure. Those may be short-lived as migration pathways, I have seen Bakken core from south of Tioga which was fractured, but the fractures were healed by calcite.

Whether the frac propagates far enough vertically is a good question, but you would think with Middle Bakken production already in existence where the Three Forks is being completed, pressure changes would be evident in the existing well if there was communication during the frac.

From what the production hands have told me, the frac tends to propagate along the bedding planes and follow paths of least resistance, which makes staged fracs better for fracturing the tighter layers.

50 posted on 06/21/2014 12:22:55 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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