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Danny, your argument discounts inflation across the board for all other goods and services from an increase in the minimum labor cost. You can't just look at wages and say there's an automatic multiplier to the economy, regardless of the percentage of jobs lost. And if there's a multiplier from increased wages, there's a negative multiplier for increased costs and taxes. So yes, those still working will have more money in their pockets, but that's negated by increased costs everywhere: housing, energy, food, transportation, etc.

I respect your input, and I agree with your statement that the effects are "uncertain" from such a raise in the minimum wage. Specific effects, yes, but the general effects are well-known. My intuition and logic tell me that it's not an experiment I want to attempt.

"Danny, your argument discounts inflation across the board for all other goods and services from an increase in the minimum labor cost.... "

Yes it does. It's a simplified argument that also ignores that if there is a change in total wages, that money came from somewhere, and is presumably a drain on investment capital, that could have been invested elsewhere.

You're right that there is a negative multiplier for increased costs and taxes. I think the inflation effects will only negate the positive impact in part. At least in the short run.

But I really think the biggest danger is raising it without restoring the import tariffs. That's telling Joe that his labor costs are mandated to go up 30% but his off-shore competitor Chang still gets to compete in Joe's market with labor costing 1/10th the old cost and faces no increase whatsoever.

"Danny, your argument discounts inflation across the board for all other goods and services from an increase in the minimum labor cost.... "

Yes it does. It's a simplified argument that also ignores that if there is a change in total wages, that money came from somewhere, and is presumably a drain on investment capital, that could have been invested elsewhere.

You're right that there is a negative multiplier for increased costs and taxes. I think the inflation effects will only negate the positive impact in part. At least in the short run.

But I really think the biggest danger is raising it without restoring the import tariffs. That's telling Joe that his labor costs are mandated to go up 30% but his off-shore competitor Chang still gets to compete in Joe's market with labor costing 1/10th the old cost and faces no increase whatsoever.