UKRAINE: IP Group Report Economic results of the week

sprotyv.info ^ | 05/07/2014 - 14:00 | Dmitry Tymchuk

[UMCRevMom@aol.com]

SUMMARY:

Of the negative:

1. Verkhovna Rada refused to support the bill on the participation of investors from the EU and the U.S. in the management of the gas transportation system of Ukraine.

2. Russian side once again postponed indefinitely the start of the next round of gas talks. In particular, the EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger and Energy Minister Alexander Novak not conducted preliminary telephone conversations that were scheduled on Friday.

3. According to the NBU, inflation in 2014 may reach 17-19% - because of the devaluation of the hryvnia, and the increase in utility tariffs. On Thursday said the head of the NBU Valery Gontareva.

4. The first half of budget revenues Ukraine amounted to 175.8 billion UAH - is by 8.1% more than the same period in 2013. However, gains in June by 7.9% less than in the same period of 2013. Impact on reducing income annexation of the Crimea and the decline in business activity in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

Of positive:

1. Hryvnia during the week slightly strengthened by non-cash market. On the spot market rate was stable.

2. IMF mission in Kiev continued to work until July 9. Preliminary results of eminent already, although not officially published. The bulk of the criteria that must be shown to continue lending programs implemented. Perhaps the only point of sharp disputes - version gobyudzheta with which there are difficulties due to high defense spending.

3.'s Banking system resumed inflow of deposits - for the first few months on the end of June there is inflow of deposits in Ukrainian banks.

4. Local authorities on behalf of the Ministry of Regional Development prepared measures to reduce gas consumption for heating by 10%. In general, it is positive and will reduce the risk of blackouts and increase debt.

5. Parliament adopted at first reading (based on) a bill to restructure the foreign currency mortgage loans. The proposed restructuring terms do not include "Exchange 5.05", as demanded by many, but it solves a lot of problems and allow the majority of borrowers reduce the cost of servicing loans.

6. German Chancellor Angela Merkel before today's talks, Foreign Ministers in Berlin warned Russia about the prospect of the introduction of the next round of sanctions if no progress is made in the de-escalation of tensions in eastern Ukraine.

7. Parliament adopted laws that are exempt from taxation on import operations in Ukraine helmets, body armor and drugs during ATO.

8. Parliament approved a new law on education.

Week ended with the appreciation of non-cash hryvnia - to 11.78/11.80 hryvnia per dollar on July 4 against 11.75/11.83 on June 27. Recall that on 4 July the currency market working out the application of the July 2.

Cash rate hryvnia 4 July remained at the level of the previous day - an average of 11.70/12.00 hryvnia per dollar. Until Monday, July 7, the cash rate is expected to average around 11.70/12.00 hryvnia per dollar. Recall that the Ministry of Finance predicted average annual rate of 10.5 hryvnia hryvnia per dollar of changes in the law of the state budget in 2014. Also close to this rate of NBU now uses in analyzing the stability of banks during 2014. IMF considers rational corridor 10-13 hryvnia hryvnia for one dollar - in the medium term.

Russian Rouble July 4 decreased compared to the previous week to 34.3883 per dollar against 33.6213 per dollar on June 27 against the euro, the ruble July 4th also fell slightly - to 46.6691 rubles per euro against 45.7917 rubles per euros on June 27. Recall that ended the week was again marked by sluggish decline in oil quotations after a five per cent growth in mid-June.

The volume of Russia's international reserves declined consistently since the beginning of 2014. Please note that the rate of decline accelerated after the start of the open phase of the conflict with Ukraine, but in the second half of May and early June decline halted and began a slow growth.

[Sacajaweau]

I believe one of the provisions of EU is that Ukraine has to up their price to consumers.