In NC, the 40% runoff rule applies only to primaries. You can win the general election with any plurality.
So the gist of my earlier post still stands, that Kay Hagan can win by splitting the nonliberal vote.
Georgia has a 50%+1 runoff rule for the general election, which allowed Repub Paul Coverdell in 1992 to defeat in a runoff the incumbent Democratic US senator Wyche Fowler, who had won the plurality in the general election.
I just voted in the Repub primary run-off, and talked to the poll workers.
Here's the rule for NC:
You can vote in the Repub primary run-off if
1. You are registered Repub, whether or not you voted in the original primary; or
2. You are registered unaffiliated AND you voted in the original Repub primary.
(NC gives unaffiliated voters the choice of which party primary to vote in for the original primary.)