OK, what is the accuracy record of this Impact Management Poll?
This is a Republican pollster with some leading questions before the poll results, but it’s still around even between the two and Pryor getting less than 50%. In spite of Cotton’s imperfections as a candidate, I expect a pickup here, albeit by a close margin.
Arkansas sent Blanche Lincoln packing by a decent margin, so maybe in Novemeber they will look past the famous political name and do the same with Pryor. That state needs to wean themselves entirely from Democrats in statewide elections.
Arkansas Senate - Cotton vs. Pryor
Candidates
Tom Cotton (R)
Bio | Campaign Site
Mark Pryor (D)*
Bio | Campaign Site
Arkansas Snapshot
RCP Average: Cotton +2.8
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key Races: Governor | AR-2 | AR-4
—————PAST KEY RACES—————
2012: President
2010: Governor | Senate | AR-1 | AR-2 | AR-4
2008: President
2006: Governor | AR-1 | AR-2 | AR-3 | AR-4
2004: President | Senate | AR-2
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE Cotton (R) Pryor (D) Spread
RCP Average 4/25 - 6/29 — — 46.3 43.5 Cotton +2.8
Impact Management Group (R) 6/29 - 6/29 1290 RV 2.7 47 43 Cotton +4
Magellan Strategies (R) 6/4 - 6/5 755 LV 3.6 49 45 Cotton +4
Rasmussen Reports 5/27 - 5/28 750 LV 4.0 47 43 Cotton +4
PPP (D) 4/25 - 4/27 840 RV 3.4 42 43 Pryor +1
All Arkansas Senate - Cotton vs. Pryor Polling Data