Wisconsin's closest congressional race in decades

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Online ^ | 8-13-14 | Craig Gilbert

[afraidfortherepublic]

A third of a percentage point is all that separates Glenn Grothman and Joe Leibham in their GOP congressional primary after the unofficial vote count Wednesday morning in Wisconsin’s Sixth District.

Grothman leads Leibham by 215 votes in the Associated Press tally, though the margin is slightly smaller – 213 -- based on a Journal Sentinel review of the returns posted online by each of the 11 counties in the district.

A recount, which can be requested by the losing candidate, would seem likely.

In AP’s unofficial count, Grothman won 36.17% of the vote, Leibham won 35.84% and Duey Stroebel won 24.7%.

It appears to be the state’s closest congressional race since 1970, when Les Aspin won a Democratic primary over Doug La Follette by 20 votes after a recount.

Tuesday’s low-turnout race was marked by sharp geographic differences in the candidates’ support.

Here’s a closer look at the returns:

Less than 12 percent of voting-age adults in the Sixth District -- about 64,000 people -- voted in the GOP congressional primary. Turnout in partisan primaries is heavily influenced by top-of-the-ticket races. In this case, the lack of a competitive primary for governor...

~snip~

This open-seat race was far more competitive than the GOP primary in the same district two years ago, when incumbent Cong. Tom Petri had token opposition. But turnout in that primary was higher (16%), because there was a competitive statewide primary for US Senate drawing Republicans to the polls.

Tuesday’s turnout varied widely within the Sixth District, from a high of almost 20 percent of voting-age adults in Ozaukee County to a low of 6 percent of voting-age adults in Columbia County.

The candidates’ support also varied widely from onecounty to another, reflecting their different geographic bases.

[afraidfortherepublic]

[afraidfortherepublic]

Grothman lead tightening. Let’s hope it holds. Needless to say, I am in Ozaukee Country.

FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, this Wisconsin interest ping list.

[februus]

Go Grothman! One of our State’s best and brightest.

[afraidfortherepublic]

Indeed!

[Steven Scharf]

“Less than 12 percent of voting-age adults in the Sixth District — about 64,000 people — voted in the GOP congressional primary”

This information is a bit bogus without knowing the partisan breakdown of the district. Congressional districts have about 700,000 people as of the 2010 census.

From the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board: “Wisconsin does not register voters by party preference or affiliation.” Interesting that Wisconsin along with Virginia does not maintain party enrollments. They do report monthly on the total number of voters and Cong Dist 6 has 417,935 voters as of August 1 (which appears to be low compared to total population. Maine has a 72% registration to total pop vs Wisconsin 59%).

The Cook Report rates the district as R +5. Tom Petri won his last two general elections by 70 and 62% but he was a long time representative so his opposition may have been minimal. Tom had a primary opponent in 2012 and 89,000 people voted in that primary, so for an open seat it does appear to be a lower turnout.

[afraidfortherepublic]

UPDATE! The AP has now WITHDRAWN their prediction that Grothman won this election. The vote between Grothman and Leibham is only 215 ballots apart with Grothman still in the lead. There is sure to be a recount.