[JRandomFreeper]

He is still very weak since he alienated a large percentage of his base, and I look forward to that liberal republican losing.

/johnny

[tanknetter]

The numbers people really need to look at are the ones for the Louisville Congressional seat. I looked at them a couple months back for a FB discussion I was having (will see if I can find and dig them out when I get home tonight), going back to when Anne Northup beat Mike Ward (1994 I think?)

The difference in margins between Presidential and mid term cycles was striking. And the jump from Obama being on the ticket in 2008 and 2012 was huge. Yarmouth wouldn’t have won the seat in 2008 without Obama, saw his margin drop significantly in 2010 and then rebound in 2012.

The numbers seem to show that Obama accounted for at least a 5 point, possibly an 8 point, drop in McConnell’s support in 2008. Iow if Obama hadn’t been on the ballot McConnell would have won by 11-14 points rather than 6.

Right now, seteris paribus (not even Labor Day yet) I think angry Conservatives will knock that margin back, but not enough and McConnell wins by 5.