Posted on 08/29/2014 5:46:23 AM PDT by elhombrelibre
A) B) You are right, but availability of certain systems at certain prices makes difference. If you have a certain sum of money and it buys a dozen rifles you end up with that. And if there is a garage sale on tanks at the same price you end up with tank. It is a significant escalation.
C) They probably are, but their carrier is still a Soviet one, bought from Ukraine. And their naval jets are carbon copies of jets used on Soviet carrier.
Your scenario is unlikely. The separatists, on their own, even given monetary and arms support from Moscow, cannot possibly hold more than 1/10th the country on an extended basis. Kiev will recuperate, and given the hatreds Putin has now insured, Putin will be “in” until the dripping blood forces him out for good. Afghanistan x10, but with some different twists...
You think China (or others) could not match Ukraine prices for armaments, for all but the old, falling apart stuff? Think again. That’s one reason (Russian style corruption is a bigger one) Ukraine is poor. Ukraine has a big arms industry, but is lowballed by others.
C [Your reply]) All the more reason to pull Ukraine into the Western sphere of influence, so that if need be, pressure could be exerted to head off certain sales. (This is unlike France, which is wealthy and powerful enough within the West to sell advanced arms to Russia, for example, if it wishes.) At any rate, the Chinese would be a lot better off learning how to do it themselves, from the ground up, as opposed to copying or buying old equipment.
I’ve dealt with many Chinese in technical / industrial and other matters, and most people underestimate:
How capable and smart they are, esp. when determined to succeed. They are incredibly hard working, too.
The rate at which they are adding Western trained engineers & technicians.
The number of Western engineers in China.
“The West” still has an edge in innovation, but it is shrinking, not helped at all of course by our Socialist policies that tend to stifle rewards for innovation. :-(
You are right on many points, but you misunderstand Ukrainian arms trade. They did their best at surplus market, and no, China couldn’t beat a $100 AK, a $15,000 T-72, a million dollar fighter jet or a $20 million carrier.
“Your scenario is unlikely. The separatists, on their own, even given monetary and arms support from Moscow, cannot possibly hold more than 1/10th the country on an extended basis. Kiev will recuperate, and given the hatreds Putin has now insured, Putin will be “in” until the dripping blood forces him out for good. Afghanistan x10, but with some different twists...”
10% of the population is more than enough to rule an entire country, particularly when they are in the position of money and power.
As for Kiev you greatly overestimate not only their ability to function but their ability levy war. If Putin wanted he could, after securing a puppet government in Crimina simply station Russian troops as border guards, or better yet sign a defense treaty with that pupit government giving him an excuses and not so veiled threat to keep Kiev out of crimina.
Yes it could be very ugly with Civil unrest and perhaps even war in Crimina, but if that 10% has most of the guns and strategically valuable ground they will win that war without Russian’s official involvement.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.