It is part of Putin’s win win gambit.
He allows the EU/Nato to chase him away from Ukraine while performing needless acts in the third curcus ring. Thus, thy appear as winners.
Meanwhile he consolidates his hold on his win, the prize...... Crimea
Crimea is not viable for Moscow without a land bridge to Russia through eastern Ukraine, so Putin will have that, too. The NATO exercise in the Baltics has no bearing on events in Ukraine, but it makes for a good show. Tomorrow will bring new problems of its own, and right now I’m more concerned about the increasing radicalization of Turkey than anything Russia might do.