Skip to comments.In a first, Republicans claim early vote lead in Iowa
Posted on 10/22/2014 10:13:26 PM PDT by iowamark
In the crucial battle for early voters in Iowa that could foreshadow which party has the edge in the midterm elections, Republicans led Democrats for the first time Wednesday, GOP officials announced.
The Republicans closed the day with an advantage of 305 of combined early votes and absentee ballot returns, giving them an advantage they have never held in any Iowa campaign. An overhauled ground game that prioritizes early voting is a key part of the Republican strategy to boost state Sen. Joni Ernst over Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley in their close race for an open Senate seat.
Republicans also believe they are winning the battle to expand the electorate, something the Democrats have focused on to diminish the GOPs historic turnout advantage in midterm elections. On Monday, among the best days for absentee-ballot requests for the Democrats, only 13 percent came from voters who did not participate in the 2010 elections; compared to 28 percent of GOP absentee requests who didnt vote four years ago.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
DM Register: Who's taking the lead? 11 measures in Senate race
“”TO: Joni Ernst for US Senate; Republican Party of Iowa; Republican National Committee; National Republican Senatorial Committee; Branstad for Governor
FROM: Mark Stephenson Partner, Cardinal Insights
SUBJECT: State of Iowa Absentee/Early Vote Data
DATE: October 22, 2014
With 13 days left in absentee and early voting, Republicans have reached an historic milestone - surpassing Democrats in absentee and early vote (AB/EV) returns an achievement that has never occurred in modern day Iowa early voting. This Republican advantage poses a major challenge for Iowa Democrats, who historically rely heavily on absentee and early vote leads to win elections.
Absentee and early voting has been underway in Iowa for several weeks, with ballots sent out on or about September 25th. After securing the Republican nomination in June, in close partnership and collaboration with the RNC, NRSC, Republican Party of Iowa and Branstad for Governor campaign, our team at the Joni Ernst for US Senate campaign planned, and is now executing, the most organized, robust and targeted data and analytics-driven grassroots and AB/EV effort that Iowa has ever seen. This memo illustrates important demographics and analytics in regards to the state of AB/EV data in Iowa as of October 22, 2014.
In short, the current state of affairs underscores a very troubling statistical vote projection for Democrat Congressman Bruce Braley’s campaign.
Republicans learned important lessons in 2010 and 2012 and have turned a historical deficit into a tactical strength going into Election Day 2014. Republicans should be proud of their efforts in the state to this point; however, their work is far from done. As improvements to the Republican AB/EV operation have started to materialize, Democrats are rapidly changing strategies and investing heavily to improve their numbers so they are able to cling to their stale absentee and early vote narrative. As a result, we should expect Democrats will regain the AB return advantage in the coming days but doing so at the expense of their Election Day vote share, as their recently recruited high propensity voters begin returning their ballots.
The Democrats’ response to our sustained, targeted and successful grassroots mobilization was anticipated and not only is it flawed, but it ironically resembles the same strategy they accused Republicans of employing no less than two weeks ago. They are now resorting to turning out likely midterm voters that our analytics projected would have voted on Election Day cutting directly into the ballot share percentage that Congressman Braley expects to receive on November 4th.
Here are six important demographic and statistical points showing the state of absentee and early vote data as of today, October 22, 2014:
1) In an unprecedented ground game mobilization, Republicans surpassed Democrats in AB/EV Returns for the first time in modern Iowa AB/EV history on October 22, 2014.
§ Today, cumulative Iowa registered Republican returns/early votes surpassed Democrats, to take a lead of 305 returned ballots. This is the first time registered Republicans have surpassed Democrats in returns.
§ In 2010, the lead for Democrat returns at this point in the cycle was 16,426 ballots. In 2012, that gap was 56,908.
§ For 2014, Republican absentee returns are up by nearly 50% over 2010, compared to only 18% for Democrats.
2) Republicans lead with in-person Early Voting, a place where Democrats historically have relied on large advantages going into Election Day.
§ Republicans lead in-person absentee and satellite voting 24,818 to 24,483.
§ Since in-person Early Voting began on 9/25, 19 total days, Republicans have led in 14 of those days.
3) The outstanding absentee ballot request gap is closer in 2014 than ever before at this point in the cycle.
§ Currently, the total overall AB request gap between Democrats and Republicans is 19,605. At this point in the cycle, this is much closer than either 2010 or 2012.
§ In 2010, the request gap at this point was 24,620. In 2012, the gap was 75,287.
§ Republican requests are up 41.5%, compared to Democrat requests improving only 30.0% over 2010.
4) Republicans have steadily grown their vote share with a group of new, low propensity, non-midterm voting individuals each week, over the past six weeks. Their total share of these voters is growing every day, while Democrats’ share is steadily decreasing.
§ Since October 1, when Republican contact efforts intensified, Republicans lead in total absentee requests from non-2010 voters by 7,678 voters.
§ The share of non-2010 voters has grown steadily over the past weeks for Republicans, while decreasing for Democrats.
§ In fact, on the Democrats’ biggest request day of the cycle, October 20th, nearly 28% of Republican absentee requests came from non-2010 voters, compared to only 13% for Democrats.
5) Democrats are now resorting to cannibalizing their 2010 voters, to keep up in the request race, keep their activists energized and hold onto their press narrative.
§ Democrats’ largest request day of the cycle, October 20th, was made up by over 87% of 2010 voters, compared to only 72% for Republican on the same day.
§ With each week, a higher percentage of Democrat 2010 voters requested ballots for 2014, starting with 75.0% for the week of September 29th, to 84.1% for the week of October 20th.
§ Even more troubling for Democrats, their recent investment, in response to our sustained growth, was to mobilize 2010 absentee and poll voters the very cannibalization they claimed they were not engaging in.
6) The Democrats’ lead is simply not sustainable or large enough to overcome Republican efforts going into Election Day.
§ Historically, Republicans outperform Democrats, both in turnout and vote share on Election Day.
§ Democrats went into the 2010 election with a request lead of almost 30,000 votes and a return lead of nearly 20,000 votes, but lost the Governor’s race overall by 108,000 votes.
§ In addition, President Obama went into the 2012 Election Day with an AB/EV lead of 137,355 votes, but lost on Election Day by 45,428 votes.
Working closely with the Republican Party of Iowa, RNC, NRSC and Branstad for Governor campaign, our efforts within Iowa to grow the electorate, along with excitement for Joni Ernst’s campaign for US Senate, is driving more and more low turnout Republican and Republican-leaning Independent voters to vote AB/EV. Iowa Democrats, especially Congressman Bruce Braley’s campaign, are rightfully concerned about these facts as they approach Election Day.””
In an election where some key members of the Democrat Base are angry and defecting to the Republican Party, did it occur to Democrats that their turn out the vote machine may be helping Democrats get to the polls to vote Republican?
What a pleasant thought that is :)
Talk to me on Nov 5.
Why are vote tallies being announced prior to poll closing time on election day?
"Historically", I believe it has been shown that Democrats "rely heavily" on voting fraud and the Republican ability to always "snatch a defeat from the jaws of victory".
These are not actual vote tallies, they are numbers of absentee ballots being returned, a matter of public record.
>> Republicans closed the day with an advantage of 305 of combined early votes and absentee ballot returns, giving them an advantage they have never held in any Iowa campaign.
This info should not be given out. It can influence voter behavior.
Which doesn’t change the fact that it can influence voter behavior.
Que Hawaii 5-0 soundtrack
Yep it can change voter behavior. But again that is the right of the people in
those states to set their election laws as they see fit until over ruled by
the courts, etc.
Right. The people decided. That’s pretty rich.
Thanks, I thought so also.
HERE we are. We're talking.
But where are YOU, Concern Troll?
I haven’t noticed LibtardHo or Dem-Masker posting much today, funny that.
I'm not convinced on Dim Maker at all, but with Rightward HO, I need no more convincing.
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