Posted on 11/04/2014 12:59:13 PM PST by mdittmar
It’s election day in Washington state, and no race on the ballot has provided more intrigue than the battle between Republicans Clint Didier and Dan Newhouse to replace retiring 10-term Congressman Doc Hastings.
Tonight culminates roughly nine months of campaigning going back to February when Hastings first announced his retirement, creating what The Daily Kos described as a “clown car” of 12 candidates who fought tooth and nail up until the August primary.
Didier, a tea party ally, finished six points ahead of mainstream conservative Newhouse in the primary with 32 percent of the vote.
Newhouse’s campaign believes that with improved name recognition, a narrowed field and the more moderate candidate, he will finish ahead when the votes are done being counted in the general election. The Didier campaign says it has momentum on its side and supporters are hungry to make a statement win for the tea party.
Whoever wins, some people out there will say they saw it coming all along. Don’t believe them.
Whether one candidate wins by double digits or the smallest of margins, the nuances of this race and the lack of public polling make it virtually impossible to predict. Here are some things I’ll be interested in following:
• Can Yakima County carry the day for Newhouse?
Newhouse won Yakima County by a 2-1 ratio over Didier in the primary with 41 percent of the vote. Didier carried every other county, including Grant, where Newhouse finished third.
If Newhouse can hold or build on that ratio in the general election, it’s possible Didier could win every other county and still lose. But Newhouse would also need to make the vote closer in the other counties than it was for him in the primary.
• Who is voting?
A few national blogs have written on this race from the angle that Democrats will ultimately decide it, but that may not be the case. Local Democratic leaders say their people are split about the race after Democrat Estakio Beltran finished third in the primary and rival Democrat Tony Sandoval finished sixth.
Sandoval and Beltran received roughly 19 percent of the vote combined in the primary. Most observers predicted between 30 and 35 percent of the vote would go to a Democrat.
Yakima County Democrats Chairman Dany Adolf has been actively encouraging Democrats to hold their noses and vote for Newhouse over the tea partier Didier. Other active Democrats, such as Beltran, have announced they wouldn’t vote for either Republican.
• How many people are voting?
Newhouse and Didier campaign operatives agree on one thing: Low turnout favors Didier with his galvanized, anti-establishment base, and higher turnout favors Newhouse.
The Secretary of State’s Office projected between 60 and 62 percent turnout statewide for the general election. Many, if not all, of the counties in the 4th Congressional District appear to be falling short of that projection.
As of late Monday, voter turnout was 29 percent in Yakima County, 30 percent in Benton County, 39 percent in Grant County, 31 percent in Franklin County, 36 percent in Okanogan County, 37 percent in Douglas County and 39 percent in Adams County.
• Will we know for sure who won before the night is over?
Maybe. That goes back to the question of whether anyone can predict with certainty what will happen.
Let’s say the candidates are within 3 percentage points of each other after all the counties have reported their initial vote totals. With the number of late ballot returns that may not be counted until Wednesday, the race could easily be too close to call.
Counties in the 4th Congressional District will only provide one ballot count tonight, so the initial results won’t be updated again until Wednesday afternoon.
That say's it all.
The GOPe can’t win without their allies: Democrats.
Clint Didier versus Newhouse....sounds like the Redskins and the Cowboys going at it.
Sadly Robert is no longer with us.
yep, and I double checked - they would have faced each other four time (2 seasons of overlap)
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