[Thunder90]

Obama is going to drop sanctions on Russia next Spring to get the Iran deal. Count on it.

Now, Congress can impose its own sanctions on Russia. They should do so without haste to prevent such a deal by Obama. They do this by adding Russia (and its closest allies Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrygstan) to the state sponsor of terror list. We also put intense pressure on China to cut relations with Russia and to behave themselves in regards to Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the Spartley islands.

[musicman]

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[Cronos]

A Shia nuclear bomb to counter the Sunni nuclear bomb (Pakistan’s)? what’s wrong with that?

[AdmSmith]

This is interesting, if there will be a deal with Iran:
First, Iran would be able to increase oil exports by around one million barrels from June levels in the short term and possibly 1.5 million barrels over two or three years. The increase in Iranian exports at a time when demand is weak and there is already excess supply could drive the oil price into the $50-60-per-barrel range. This could produce a positive shock for the oil-importing countries and a negative shock for the oil exporters.

Every $10 decline in the oil price could boost real GDP growth in the oil importing countries by 0.2 percent. It would be a de facto $400-billion tax cut at a time when most industrial countries are too concerned about their fiscal deficits to propose new tax cuts. The major winners would include Japan, India and Western Europe, because they import most of their oil. The United States would also benefit, because it still imports about one-third of its oil consumption.

The second positive consequence would be to cripple the economies of leading American enemies, such as Russia and Venezuela. Oil and gas account for 68 percent of Russian exports and 45 percent of government tax revenues. The recent decline in the oil price has already provoked the finance minister to say that Russia may not be able to increase military spending next year. The devaluation of the ruble has helped to offset some of the revenue impact of falling oil prices, but Russia had been budgeting for a $100-per-barrel oil price next year. If it drops into the $50-60-per-barrel range, Russia will be hard pressed to maintain spending, while the central bank could be forced to hike interest rates sharply in order to defend the ruble. The odds would increase of Russia experiencing a major recession after only 0.2 percent GDP growth this year.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-iran-deal-400-billion-tax-cut-11707