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To: gogeo

The links are worthwhile reading as well:

For example:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/20/oil-economy-investment-kemp-idUSL6N0UZ41G20150120

...The same dynamics are being played out on a global scale. High-paying jobs and capital investment are being lost in the oil and gas sector faster than they are being added in the other industries that will eventually replace them.

The global oil and gas sector has been a massive engine of global growth over the last five years and is now coming to an abrupt halt.

The speed and magnitude of price changes matter: the 60 percent reduction in oil prices in just seven months counts as a price shock of the first magnitude.

Rapid price changes (positive or negative) in key raw materials (and none is more vital than oil) always produce some economic dislocation.

Prices change faster than consumers and businesses can adapt to them, causing some loss of potential output and employment.

Lower energy prices will, eventually, be an unambiguous net benefit for the United States, and for much of the rest of the world economy. But the process of adjustment itself could be painful.


3 posted on 01/21/2015 9:48:24 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

If I remember right, you play in the energy industry. I used to (in my misspent youth!).

Has a drop like this happened before? I remember other booms/busts, but the speed and depth of this one is different.


4 posted on 01/21/2015 10:21:19 AM PST by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: thackney
I went through the links. From the Reuters link: last paragraph

Lower energy prices will, eventually, be an unambiguous net benefit for the United States, and for much of the rest of the world economy. But the process of adjustment itself could be painful.

No one can argue with that. It's incredibly disruptive, but will be a net plus, eventually.

His other points about the difficulty of moving white collar skill sets from exploration to other industries is well taken. Again, the joke during a previous bust: How do you call a petroleum Engineer? "Waiter!"

I think most of the blue collar skills will translate well to other industry. Welders, for example, are still in great demand.

This downside for employment as an industry slows (example: the auto industry seven years ago) happens regardless of the industry. I believe the upside of low energy prices is more powerful, because energy factors into every kind of commerce. Consumers use a lot of energy.

7 posted on 01/21/2015 11:45:23 AM PST by gogeo (If you are Tea Party, the eGOP does not want you.)
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