Folks, please remember that, in the Federal Exchange Only states, the subsidies are tightly “linked” to the Obamacare penalties. If the SC rules the subsidies aren’t covered by the law (as I expect) than the various tied in employee taxes and penalties also WILL NOT BE PART OF THE LAW. This lack of Obamacare related penalties will be yet another reason for people and businesses to ‘un-ass” the blue states that have a state exchange (and hence Obamacare taxes and penalties) and move to a red state. This will be add substantial “gravitational” pull to these red states to attract wealth.
The penalties would still exist in those states, but quite a few people on the exchanges would be able to claim a hardship exemption for lack of affordability. They would then be able to buy catastrophic insurance. Many of the people that are paying a penalty for not having insurance, will not have too. Take the case of Illinois. They have ~300K on exchanges and another ~600K or so that are eligible for subsidies but are going without. Somebody that makes too much for a subsidy would still have to pay the penalty if they went without coverage. I am no expert on it, but that is the way I read it..
If SC rules against federally run state exchanges I think it likely Boehner and the boys will rush in to save the day..