I have been warning about this issue for some now. I'm glad to see that it is finally getting some attention.
As to your comment about the meaningless polls - I wish you were right but I'm afraid you are not. Millions of people are going to be affected if the Supremes rule against Obamacare in June as is widely anticipated. I think the polls reflect the realization that many if not most of these millions will not be able to afford their Obamacare Health Care Plan and will drop it. A disaster for them and for the Insurance Industry.
Thank You Obama for the mess you have made.
So I am betting that the GOP will step in with some measure to minimize the damage. I think they will extend the Federal subsidies for the remainder of 2015 and lump that in with changes to the Obamacare law that are not so major that Obama would veto the bill.
But in 2016 those subsidies have to go or there will be a big price paid by the GOP in the presidential election the following November. And, if we get Ted Cruz, that election is going to be about the total repeal of Obamacare. It would be very unlike our favorite Senator not to have thought about this scenario in depth. I'm anxious to hear what his approach will be since it will have a major impact on whether he becomes President of the United States in 2017.
You are about 75% right about all this.
But the 25% you didn’t mention is a killer.
1) Yes, it is anathema to the GOP to wind up supporting subsidies.
2) Yes, the states without exchanges could create them and solve the problem, but as the article mentions, this would hurt the lower tier GOP at the state level.
3) The big kicker for the 25% is this is not just about polling and people wanting free stuff. This is also a major Constitutional issue re: equal protection. States who DID create exchanges will get subsidies to their voters. States without will not and this is not going to be allowed. An instant lawsuit under the equal protection law will certainly pass all levels of courts.
This is somewhat the GOP’s way out. They will be forced Constitutionally to restore subsidies. The state level would be best. Or squirm around it by saying the Constitution requires equal protection so the subsidies will be extended to all states temporarily.
The Constitutional requirement is how they will avoid the wrath of the right wing.
“Millions of people are going to be affected if the Supremes rule against Obamacare in June as is widely anticipated. I think the polls reflect the realization that many if not most of these millions will not be able to afford their Obamacare Health Care Plan and will drop it. A disaster for them and for the Insurance Industry.”
A good analysis on your part; however, do you really think the average citizen understands all the facts outlined in your post? I don’t. That’s why I believe that this poll is made-up garbage.