In my view fracking can shut down due to low prices, and it can start right up again when prices go up.
It’s a technology that is well proven, and will be employed whenever the financials are adequate.
At some point the Saudis are going to be left selling to China, that friendly country with Mafia business practices and 1.5b expendable people to enforce them.
It won’t be fun to be a raghead over the next decade I believe.
That’s fine as far as it goes - but it entails the cost of training up new workers to replace those who move on because they can’t just get in a can and wait for the industry to pop the lid off again when prices are right. Just naturally raises costs. There are good counter arguments, but I’m still not convinced that we shouldn’t impose a protective tariff on oil. Not a huge one, of course - just enough to put a thumb on the scales in favor of domestic production. Thereby cushioning the notorious swings the fuel market is subject to. That might also, tangentially, improve the market for NG. But thackney points out that some of our refining capacity is best suited for imported oil. Clearly that would place a hardship on people who don’t deserve it.