From what I understand, ISIS/Daesh in Iraq is mostly the leftover from the Iraqi National Guard of Hussein’s day; they’re not really insurgents. The new Iraqi army is doing what I was expecting us to do in 2003: clearing out all the homes, seizing all the weapons, shooting anyone who resists. The problem with Daesh is that most of the new Iraqi army in the North was Sunni, so there’d be Sunni governing/patroling Sunni, but when Daesh looked like they were forming a new government, the Sunnis had no loyalty. The new Iraqi army is mostly Shiite, with Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni tribal militias supporting them.
The truth is, though, I expect this to be to the ISIS war what the Battle of the Bulge was to WWII: a long-drawn-out struggle with several apparent reversals. But the good news is that it will probably draw almost all of the ISIS firepower away from Kurdish / Assyrian lands. The more this battle draws out, the more isolated ISIS will be.
“I expect this to be to the ISIS war what the Battle of the Bulge was to WWII”
ISIS’ initial surprise and momentum has run its course. This is the start of the deliberate counterattack campaign. Tikrit is the main city on the road to Mosul, and Mosul will be the culminating battle of the campaign. I predict a “Summer of Death” for Daesh, if they try to hold Mosul this Summer.
If they abandon or lose Mosul, the rest of Iraq is clean up, even if it may be time-consuming and bloody.
They will face the sophistication of the Iranian military and large numbers of Shia infantry, while being pounded from the air throughout their rear areas. They risk having their retreat cut off to be destroyed in detail.
The only things that might save Daesh would be a massive sectarian rallying of all Sunnis to their cause, or a massive Turkish intervention on their side. Maybe the Saudis will pay the Turks to attack - they are sweating being surrounded by Iran in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and even the Sudan - just across the Red Sea from Mecca.