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Rafale Has Gone From Long-Time Export Flop To Huge Success In 45 Days
Foxtrot Alpha ^ | 04/30/2015 | Tyler Rogoway

Posted on 04/30/2015 7:59:12 PM PDT by sukhoi-30mki

There is no doubt about it, the French-built Rafale fighter is on a roll. Egypt suddenly sealed a deal for 24 of the multirole fighters in February, India finally consummated a reduced initial order of 36 jets, and now Qatar will purchase 24. After 20 years, the Rafale has gone from an export zero to export hero in a blistering 45 days.

Each country that has bought the Rafale has done so for different reasons. India is looking to bridge the gap that will be left by retiring old MiG-21s and MiG-27s, and to offset delays in the country’s indigenous Tejas light fighter program.

India’s original Multi-Role Combat Aircraft initiative included 126 aircraft and massive industry offsets and technological exchanges. After years of negotiating, this buy has been scaled back to 36 initial aircraft, all of which will be built in France. India’s Rafale order could rapidly grow once the jets are operational and India is happy with the product.

The path to get a Rafale deal with India has been an arduous one. It took years to get a firm order for the Rafale in place, even though India already operates close to 60 Dassault Mirage 2000Hs as one of their key multirole fighter platforms. The Mirage 2000 is a direct predecessor to the Rafale and all of India’s Mirages are being upgraded to the Mirage 2000-5mk2 standard, which will allow them to better integrate with their new Rafale stablemates.

Egypt, which is now under quasi-military rule, bought its Rafales in what could be seen as response to the US holding back, at least temporarily, deliveries of late block F-16s as punishment for the’s military overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood led democratically elected government. The divergence from purchasing US hardware is a clear sign of frosty relations with the US, even though Egyptian-US military to military ties have been incredibly strong over the last few decades.

Egypt also has an existing fleet of 18 Mirage 2000EM/BMs, and many older Mirage Vs. The Mirage 2000 fleet may be augmented in the near future by around three dozen Mirage 2000-9s, which would be sold directly to Egypt from the UAE. These aircraft are some of the most advanced Mirages 2000s in the world and could easily be upgraded to integrate directly with the 24 Rafales now on order.

The move to the Rafale as Egypt’s most advanced fighter unseats the F-16, a jet that the country has had a long-running love affair with, being the fourth largest operator of the type in the world.

The Qatari order is especially interesting as the country has always maintained a fairly meager fighter inventory compared to neighboring emirates. Currently, Qatar only has about a dozen Mirage 2000-5s on hand. Before that, the Mirage F1 was the mainstay of their small fighter force. Although a fighter purchase was looming, the order of 24 jets will triple their fighter force, and when factoring in support, training and weaponry, it will bring $7B to French coffers.

One common denominator among all of the Rafale’s export customers is that they are are all prior Dassault customers, and all have fielded the predecessor to the Rafale in particular, the Mirage 2000, in various configurations. Regardless of this fact, the Rafale, which has performed brilliantly in operations over Libya, Mali and Iraq, has gone from export loser to export success in a tiny fraction of the program’s timeline, which has spanned close to 30 years. Further add-on orders and orders from other countries are almost certain to follow with such a powerful and sudden sales momentum.

Not only do all of these orders equate to tens of billions of dollars in income for France’s weapons and aerospace industry, but it also means that the Rafale line, which has been significantly slowed to its minimum pace of about 11 jets a year due to reduced French purchases, which is still above french demand, will be stabilized and even expanded.

After almost twenty years of trying, the Rafale is finally an exported fighter, to three air arms no less, two of which are some of the largest in the world. The sale to Qatar could also open the door to fulfilling Kuwait and Bahrain’s fighter needs, both of which are quietly in the market for new hardware. Kuwait is aiming to replace its dated F/A-18 Hornets and Bahrain looks toward replacing its aging F-5s and augmenting its F-16 force. Malaysia, which has a growing and highly diverse air arm, is also looking for new fighters, with Dassault’s Rafale a clear option among many others.

Not only is the Rafale now a battle proven aircraft, but France is also one of the most ‘creative’ sources for 4.5+ generation fighters when it comes to aggressive finance offers, with very attractive loan terms given to Egypt to close its fighter deal. For countries with advanced aerospace industries, large industrial offsets can also be offered to sweeten a fighter tender. This financial aggressiveness may even trump capability needs for many air forces that cannot procure new fighters in meaningful numbers with cash.

All of the Eurocanard family of fighters (Rafale, Eurofighter, Gripen) have spread to someplace throughout the globe other than Europe, and it will be interesting to see which production lines stay alive and which ones wither toward the end of the decade. Amazingly, what two months ago was a bleak outlook for France’s only fighter export has now become one of the shining stars on the international combat aircraft arms market.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: aerospace; dassault; france; rafale

1 posted on 04/30/2015 7:59:12 PM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
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To: sukhoi-30mki

Has ANY Rafale EVER seen an all out fight to the death anywhere on the planet?


2 posted on 04/30/2015 8:23:52 PM PDT by Cen-Tejas (it's the debt bomb stupid)
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To: sukhoi-30mki

Americans can’t compete in markets where bribes are required.


3 posted on 04/30/2015 8:28:33 PM PDT by PAR35
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To: PAR35

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2014/07/14/qatar-spends-big-on-american-choppers-and-missiles/


4 posted on 04/30/2015 8:30:38 PM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
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To: sukhoi-30mki

5 posted on 04/30/2015 8:40:11 PM PDT by UCANSEE2 (Lost my tagline on Flight MH370. Sorry for the inconvenience.)
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To: sukhoi-30mki
I suspect the Iran job is going to be multinational. Will the USA try to shoot down the planes from several different countries? Will the Alliance feel the need to sink the American fleet as part of a launch on Iran? Israel might just be able to do it. It is not smart, I think, to put Israel against the wall of survival and tell Israel that if it defends itself it will be attacked by the USA. Those threats have been made over the last years, obliquely but unmistakeably.
6 posted on 04/30/2015 8:46:22 PM PDT by arthurus (it's true!)
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To: Cen-Tejas

Apparently not. They were used in various places, they dropped a lot of bombs on Libya.

Never had an air to air battle as far as I can tell from the Wiki page and stuff


7 posted on 04/30/2015 8:51:32 PM PDT by GeronL (Clearly Cruz 2016)
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To: PAR35

#3 Send in the Clinton clowns.


8 posted on 04/30/2015 9:05:23 PM PDT by minnesota_bound
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To: sukhoi-30mki

I am concerned that it isn’t because the Rafayalle is so good, but that the US alternative, the F-35 is having continued disappointments.


9 posted on 04/30/2015 9:52:33 PM PDT by Wildbill22 (They have us surrounded again, the poor bastards- Gen Creighton Williams Abrams)
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To: Wildbill22
........US alternative, the F-35 is having continued disappointments......

Bingo!

I really have no damned idea whether or not the F-35 is any good or not* .... but it certainly has gotten some mighty bad press. Plus, it has skyrocketed in cost, has been forever in development, and is not close to production yet.

The Rafale makes economic sense. It has two engines, all the normal bells and whistles, and apparently is a pretty fair step up from the F-16. The Frogs have never really gotten over beating the pants off the F-16 in NATO fly-off trials and not getting the business anyway ... so this has got to be sweet revenge!

* I sure don't like its looks, though! A guy who had a lot to do with designing the F 16 .... Pierre Sprey .... says it's a loser.

10 posted on 04/30/2015 10:20:54 PM PDT by Kenny Bunk (Hi! We're having a constitutional crisis. Come on over!)
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To: Wildbill22

The Rafale is a Dassault jet, although radically different to the Mirage 2000 which is its predecessor.

What I remember about Dassault is their III and V (whence the 2000 came) getting solidly beaten by the subsonic British Sea Harrier way back in 1982.

Apparently going up against the F4 and F15 in air training helped the British pilots own a supersonic jet. The SHAR did rather well against the F15 as well ...

So what did Britain do? Retire all of them and hope for the F35. Bah.


11 posted on 05/01/2015 2:31:51 AM PDT by some tech guy (Stop trying to help, Obama)
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To: some tech guy

The Argentine Mirage IIIs were operating from the mainland and were on the end of their legs without midair refueling. They were limited to one, maybe two high-speed passes and were forced to head back with bingo fuel. The Harriers were much closer to their carriers, had loiter time and were at an advantage staying low and slow.

If the IIIs got close and dirty with the Harriers, they were unpleasantly surprised by the all-aspect Aim 9 Lima (a big step-up in capability at the time), where the Magic missile they carried was limited to tail engagements.


12 posted on 05/01/2015 2:59:56 AM PDT by JadeEmperor
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To: JadeEmperor

Yeah, the SHAR could do CAP from carriers, and the Mirages couldn’t do anything similar.

Given the K/D ratio (zero SHAR losses from AA combat), it really showed off the Aim 9

The Brits were unfortunately a little surprised by Exocet capability though. On the other hand, nuke sub kill. First, as I recall.


13 posted on 05/01/2015 3:24:11 AM PDT by some tech guy (Stop trying to help, Obama)
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To: Cen-Tejas
They participated in Red Flag and instead of fighting they hung back and "sucked up all the 'trons."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=QfXBoeV86Yo#t=51

14 posted on 05/01/2015 5:13:16 AM PDT by Yo-Yo (Is the /sarc tag really necessary?)
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To: some tech guy
The Israeli's did rather well against MiG -21s with their Mirage squadrons, which also proved quite useful in CAS Missions.

The Brits did well with the HArrier in low-level dog fighting against the Argie Mirage ....but they had the better missile, and has been pointed out, by the time the Argie jets got there, they were critical on fuel.

The Frogs are flying some very good stuff. Meanwhile back at the ranch, it's apparent that the "F" in F-35, stands for "flounder;" technically and commercially.

15 posted on 05/01/2015 5:13:36 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk (Hi! We're having a constitutional crisis. Come on over!)
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To: Kenny Bunk

American planes will always have an edge in most markets compared to French offerings for some simple reasons: greater political clout and (significantly) lower costs and risk given higher order volumes for the US military.

e.g., Compare the number of F-16s ordered by the USAF/ANG to the number of Mirage-2000s ordered by France.

So, in short, even if F-35 orders are cut drastically, it will still win most export battles against the Rafale.


16 posted on 05/01/2015 5:45:41 AM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
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To: some tech guy

Falklands glory aside, the Sea Harrier would be pulp against any decently equipped fighter, so you can’t really blame the Brits for wanting something newer.


17 posted on 05/01/2015 5:50:03 AM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
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To: Kenny Bunk

Where’s a Boyd when you need one?


18 posted on 05/01/2015 7:02:06 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Kenny Bunk

The costs are coming down as production ramps up.

At last count, I believe over 130 aircraft have been delivered to date, with close to 50 scheduled to be delivered this year.

Software has been a problem...but they’re making progress.

Amazing how cynical and skeptical FReepers claim to be of the LSM...yet, the LSM can print a negative article about a weapons system in development and everyone loses their damned minds...


19 posted on 05/01/2015 7:16:59 AM PDT by SZonian (Throwing our allegiances to political parties in the long run gave away our liberty.)
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To: SZonian
In regard to the F-35, I have been more influenced by the opinion of Pierre Sprey, co-designer of the F-16.

F-35, A Lemon?

The gist of his objections seems to be that in designing the F-35 to accomplish too many tasks and missions, it compromises the ability to do any very well. I try to bare in mind that Pierre favors simplicity and single purpose airplanes, and likes (as I think do I) the idea that quantity has a quality all its own.

20 posted on 05/01/2015 8:46:09 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk (Hi! We're having a constitutional crisis. Come on over!)
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