Posted on 05/15/2015 5:59:55 AM PDT by expat_panama
After a rough start to the year, economists are counting on the U.S. to bounce back in 2015 much like it did in 2014.
Forecasters in the latest Wall Street Journal survey estimated the U.S. economy contracted at a 0.3% pace in the first quarter because of hits from winter weather and the West Coast port slowdown. But the panel, on average, sees annualized economic growth of 2.8% in the second quarter, supported by stronger job gains and wage growth.
They also see the drag from weak trade and a strong dollar dissipating by the second half, delivering average economic growth at a 3% pace.
The survey of 62 economists, not all of whom answered every question, showed a widespread expectation that consumers would start spending again after several months of avoiding the mall. The May survey was conducted before the Commerce Department reported retail sales were flat in April, but some economists played down the number.
"The April spending numbers will look better once we get information on services," said Stuart Hoffman of PNC Financial Services. "That's where consumers are spending their money, and the April increase in restaurant sales points to greater demand for services overall."
Mr. Hoffman said better job and wage growth, along with increases in home values and stock prices, should allow consumer spending to increase close to 3% this year. Consumer spending grew by 2.5% in 2014.
That would help boost overall growth. In its first pass at the first-quarter data, the Commerce Department in late April estimated gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 0.2% after adjusting for inflation. But other first- quarter data released since then have been weak, leading economists to expect a contraction once the figures are revised...
(Excerpt) Read more at nasdaq.com ...
Retail trade sales were down 0.1 (±0.5%)* from March 2015, and 0.1 percent (±0.7%)* below last year. Food services and drinking places were up 8.5 percent (±3.3%) from April 2014 and nonstore retailers were up 6.3 percent (±1.9%) from last year.
http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
Happy Friday as the rally continues. Again. Stocks saw yesterday's follow-thru now into futures up +0.24% although metals come from yesterday's rally to -0.27%. Today's static:
8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing
9:15 AM Industrial Production
9:15 AM Capacity Utilization
10:00 AM Mich Sentiment
4:00 PM Net Long-Term TIC Flows
Them millions and millions and millions of illiterate ILLEGAL MEHHICCCANS and SOMALIS is just gonna do wonders for thishere economy, don’cha know.
Tx! I sometimes complain about those reports confusing things but I still pay attention. On our worry list we might want to add yesterdays negative PPI (-0.4%). Deflation’s deadly tho it would mean we could forget about rate hikes.
NEW YORK (TheStreet) — The vast $700-billion US trucking industry with its 3.4 million drivers that hauled 10 billion tons last year — 69% of the nation’s freight — is an early warning system for the overall economy. And it’s been making the wrong rumbling sounds.
Rates for intermodal containers by rail dropped on a year over year basis in January, February, and March, according to the Cass Intermodal Price Index by Cass Information Systems (CASS - Get Report).
There’s some charts in this story.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-prices-is-quite-high-too-high-1431707331
Stock Prices: Is ‘Quite High’ Too High?
Janet Yellen’s comment about current prices adds to the debate about the market’s valuation
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