Posted on 06/01/2015 7:34:07 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The circle is now complete. When Rubio left Bush, he was but the learner. Now he is the master.
This is the second YouGov poll in three weeks showing the younger guy from Florida with a big, big, big lead over the establishment favorite in a hypothetical head-to-head. If you wondered at the time whether the earlier result was a fluke, wonder no more.
Three weeks ago, YouGov had it 52/25 in Rubio’s favor. But that came with a question mark: Was Rubio’s big lead more a product of his own strength or of Jeb’s weakness? There was no way to test that at the time because YouGov didn’t poll any other Republicans head-to-head against Bush. This time they did. Behold:
Rand’s not quite as strong against Jeb as Rubio is but he still crushes him by 18 points among Republicans. There’s your evidence of “anybody but Bush” sentiment spreading among GOPers — against the most and least hawkish young contenders in the field, Jeb’s an also-ran, even though Republicans prefer experience to new ideas by a 62/27 spread and state governors to congressional legislators by a 47/24 margin. Of course, that doesn’t mean he’s destined to lose the primaries: Could be that 25 percent or so of GOP voters are committed establishmentarians who are prepared to stick with the “electable” Jeb through thick and thin, whereas Rand’s and Rubio’s support will splinter among rivals like Scott Walker and Ted Cruz. Imagine a scenario, though, where Jeb consistently finishes second in head-to-head polling against an array of Republican competitors yet still manages to win the nomination simply because the rest of the field is so splintered. That’d be a big party morale booster headed into war against Hillary, huh?
And that’s not the worst news for Bush, arguably. He and Rubio are supposed to be the great Latino hopes in the field, but among all Hispanic registered voters — not just Hispanic Republicans, but the entire demographic — he leads Rand Paul by just two points. Against Rubio, Bush trails among Hispanics 33/17. His key demographic appeal is nowhere in sight here. Rubio, meanwhile, not only leads Jeb among Hispanics but Paul too at 34/18 and Scott Walker at 39/9(!). Those may be the single most important numbers to come from this entire poll given how the GOP’s donor class craves a candidate who can shrink the Latino gap with Hillary.
Now you’re wondering how Rubio and Paul do head-to-head against each other. Pretty much how you’d expect:
It’s a tight race, with men preferring Rand by 10 points and women preferring Rubio by five. There’s an age gap too, with Rand leading by 16 among voters aged 30-44 and Rubio leading by 30(!) among voters 65 or over. Against the entire GOP field (not just head to head), Rand leads with 13 percent among voters aged 18-29 while Rubio leads with 16 percent among voters 65 or over. Rubio’s strength among senior citizens is something I’ve noted before without being able to explain it, but I like this old-wine-in-new-bottles summary from Michael Brendan Dougherty: “He gives them hope that their ideals will outlive the Nixon-Reagan coalition.” Yup. Anyway, we could do worse than a Rubio vs. Paul race. And almost certainly will.
I’m hoping Jeb bows out, or is forced out by the reality of the numbers, before the end of the summer. Probably dreaming, but a guy can hope.
The poll makers are trying to create their own milieu.
Of course they are. It’s not about reporting the news, it’s about being Agents of Change.
I’m calling them out on it.
Fxxx .. has been leaving that information out A LOT.
We had a thread here regarding a poll in FL between Cruz and Rubio - it was Cruz 65, Rubio 10.
There is definitely a push on to get rid of Cruz. I believe they did the same thing to Reagan .. and we know how that worked out. At a recent event, it was SRO, and people had to be turned away for lack of space.
When Cruz can get standing ovations in the NE, the left is definitely in a lot of trouble.
That they are and these polls are so far off, they are completely worthless !
Was going to say...where’s my candidate? I don’t WANT Rubio and I’m tired of them giving me Hobson’s choice.
YouGov is now a Huffington Post partner.
It’s polls are garbage.
Too bad. Used to be very interesting.
Now they’re just interesting to see what Huffpost wants people to think.
I found a great time saver. I have used this technique on the last two articles.
I quickly scan the article and if I don’t see the name of Ted Cruz in the article, I don’t bother reading any of it.
~~Cruz, OR LOSE~~ Ted Cruz is the only true Conservative in this race.
~~Cruz, OR LOSE~~ Ted Cruz is the only true Conservative in this race.
He's also polling in 7th place which could count for the lack of words written about him.
Is this why Jeb hasn’t announced officially yet?
Nota Bene: Ted Cruz not included in these rigged polls
I don’t know. Apparently Cruz voted to give Obama fast track for the so-called trade bill.
I believe they did the same thing to Reagan .. and we know how that worked out.
Yep he didn’t make it the first time out in 1976.
I wish we would stop the worshiping of Cruz. He is a politician not someone that you need to have posters of. You don’t see other candidates having this type of creepy posters.
I see that you have made up your mind, fine, so have I. I will continue to support Ted Cruz.
If he doesn’t get the nomination ( I think he still will ), then I’ll fold, walk away from the table and you folks can enjoy yourselves while I watch whatever POS democrat takes the White House.
Ted Cruz remains the only true Conservative in this race and NONE of the others are worthy of my vote.
I wish your caretakers would keep you away from a computer and double your dose of Thorazine.
~~Cruz, OR LOSE~~ Ted Cruz is the only true Conservative in this race.
My mind is not made up. It’s just a little troubling that Cruz voted for that.
I had trouble with a few things that even Reagan did, but I still love him, his memory and all of the good things that a real conservative did for our country.
Mark my words on this, if we do not get behind a real, intelligent and courageous conservative and help him win, this will be that last time we will ever need to worry about it.
Cruz is the only real conservative in this race. Sure, he’s not a perfect man and I am glad he isn’t. The last perfect man was nailed to a Cross.
~~Cruz, OR LOSE~~ Ted Cruz is the only true Conservative in this race.
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