it wasn’t strange. It was wholly predictable. Cynical, disreputable, despicable. But predictable.It’s what known in the polling industry as “herding”. And herding, not to put too fine a point on it, is when pollsters cheat.
The fundamental reason why polls are wrong is that polls are journalism - and journalism is propaganda. Call that cynicism if you will - but the fact is that journalists herd together all the time. Via the mechanism of the Associated Press newswire, if in no other way.The natural disposition is always to believe. It is acquired wisdom and experience only that teach incredulity, and they very seldom teach it enough. The wisest and most cautious of us all frequently gives credit to stories which he himself is afterwards both ashamed and astonished that he could possibly think of believing.Such being the case, skepticism is nothing to be ashamed of. To the contrary, the effect of FR of enabling us to pool our “incredulity” it is a cardinal virtue.The man whom we believe is necessarily, in the things concerning which we believe him, our leader and director, and we look up to him with a certain degree of esteem and respect. . . .
The desire of being believed, the desire of persuading, of leading and directing other people, seems to be one of the strongest of all our natural desires. - Adam Smith, Theory of Moral Sentiments
I remember, perhaps wrongly, that the spread was 9 points and that labour got basically banished to Scotland.
And to me that means one day the UK is UK-1.