Walker, Clinton Lead in Minnesota; General Closer than 2008 and 2012

PPP ^ | 8/5/15 | Tom Jensen

[BigEdLB]

Donald Trump may be running the tabl e in national polls these days, but PPP's new Minnesota poll finds that Scott Wa lker is continuing to hold his own in the Midwest. Walker narrowly leads the GOP fiel d in the state with 19% to 18% for Trump, 15% for Jeb Bush, 11% for Ben Carson, 7% fo r Ted Cruz, 6% for Mike Huckabee, 5% each for Rand Paul and Marco Rubio, 4% fo r Chris Christie, and 3% each for Carly Fiorina and John Kasich. Rounding out the GOP field with minimal support are Bobby Jindal at 1%, Jim Gilmore, Li ndsey Graham, George Pataki, and Rick Santorum with less than 1%, and Rick Perry w ith literally no supporters.

[BigEdLB]

Minnesota Summary PPP August 5 Release

Republican Caucus
Walker … 19
Trump … 18
Bush … 15
Carson … 11
Cruz … 7
Huckabee … 6
Paul … 5
Rubio … 5
Christie … 4
Fiorina … 3
Kasich … 3
Jindal … 1
others … 2
undecided … 1

Democrat Caucus
Clinton … 50
Sanders … 32
O'Malley … 4
Chaffee … 3
Webb … 2


Clinton vs Opponents
44 Bush 42 undecided 16 deficit 2
44 Carson 39 undecided 17 deficit 5
43 Christie 38 undecided 18 deficit 5
44 Cruz 39 undecided 17 deficit 5
44 Fiorina 33 undecided 23 deficit 11
44 Huckabee 42 undecided 16 deficit 2
43 Paul 42 undecided 15 deficit 1
42 Rubio 40 undecided 18 deficit 2
44 Trump 39 undecided 18 deficit 5
46 Walker 42 undecided 12 deficit 4



Sample:
Democrat 38
Republican 30
Independent 32

[BigEdLB]

Blue Minnesota is a D+5 state so the oversample is +3, and the GOP candidates are still close to Hillary.... Look at the head-to-head for Trump compared to the others. He is doing all right. Same as Ted Cruz 44-39...

[Diana in Wisconsin]

Could the Cruzbots explain to me why Cruz is trailing like this? It doesn’t seem like he should be.

Does he poll higher, elsewhere?

[wolfman23601]

Let’s see how he is doing after some debating. He’ll have to perform as advertised if he is going to gain any traction amid Trumpmania.

[gov_bean_ counter]

Well, I guess that means he won’t get the nomination when the convention meets next week...

[ncalburt]

PPP is a Dem party
owned front that cooks up some awful push poll crap.

In the VA Gov race they peddle a push poll over and over
with Ken C losing by 16 pts but he lost by 1.5 points.
In the GA senate race ,PPP had the race too close and the Dem was crushed !
In the NC senate race they had the Dem ahead and she was crushed .

Believe nothing from the fraudulent Dem operation.

[LS]

I don't buy any head to head match ups yet. The las two cycles McCain and Romney were either ahead or very close at this point. Meaningless til nominee is set.

That said, don't fall (as I admittedly did in the past) for the notions of "weighting". Most polls are pretty accurate, as we found---twice.

[ilgipper]

He hasn’t really done much yet. National media to build a base. I think their strategy is to perform well in debates and use the organization being built with the significant donations to rise to the top.

I think a lot of people love Cruz but don’t see him as a charismatic candidate. If he proves he can be, he’ll rise up. If not, he’ll stay second tier.

[Dr. Sivana]

Could the Cruzbots explain to me why Cruz is trailing like this? It doesn’t seem like he should be.

I wouldn't characterize myself as a "Cruzbot", though he is certainly my first choice. The supporters of Huckabee and Casey will eventually go somewhere else, at least by March 1.

They won't go to Jeb, and they won't likely go to Trump (unless it is clearly a two man contest by that point). Some will go to Rubio because of his demeanor (comes across as positive), some to Walker (Huck supporters who want a governor) and some to Cruz (who see him as the most solid pro-lifer, and they liked what they heard from Huck and Carson).

Name recognition counts for more at this stage. Both Cruz and Walker are purposefully laying low. They have money, but they don't want to waste it with polling points that may not last. Cruz is certainly concentrating on key states outside of the first four primaries, and seems to take seriously the notion that there might not be a first round winner. Cruz is spending a LOT of time here in Georgia, and he wants Michigan, which is closer to Walker's wheelhouse. A win, or second place showing to Trump will wound Walker badly.

We have to see who flames out/runs out of money after Iowa. Remember 2008 for the Dems? Edwards split the non racial minority vote with HRC. If he wasn't in, HRC wins Iowa and New Hampshire, and gets the nomination saying some condescending things to Obama before picking him for VP.

A couple of the asterisks will drop out before Iowa. Others after NH and SC. Then, when we are down to seven candidates, and maybe three or four competitive ones on March 1, we will see how it breaks.

Patience. Patience.

[bert]

Cruz will make the deal and go to Trump

in the words of Mr Spoc, it’s logical

meanwhile..... Go Scott!

[Dr. Sivana]

Here’s to a fourth place (or worse) finish for Jeb Bush.

On the Dem side, I want HRC wounded, but not vanquished, making as MANY enemies as she can along the way. That plays in nicely with Walker’s pitch about a name from the past being unable to address the problems of the future.

[uncbob]

Who the hell are the fools supporting Bush ?

[longtermmemmory]

these are the public polls not the campaign insider polls.

These same polls said it was a slam dunk jbush/hclinton contest.

I wonder what the insider polls are saying today given the black swan event that trump has generated.

Trump may not win in the end, however the more people see trump the less they like jbush and the rest.

[nascarnation]

I think Bush is as popular among Dems as ever.
If he wins the R nomination, it well be due to Dems voting him in.
#OpChaos2016

[stevem]

Whichever Democrat is on the final ballot will win Minnesota. Commissioning a poll in Minnesota is a waste of money for any candidate.

[BigEdLB]

Well, Hillary in the mid 40s, R's within 5 or less (Including Trump) and high undecideds is not a good sign for her in BLUE Minnesota. Plus - The sample is pretty close. Point well taken about the weights. Oversample of 3D is margin of error stuff. It is when, like some of the national polls (I think CNN) I have seen where you have a +10 D sample (Nationally) that I wonder about...

[itsahoot]

I think a lot of people love Cruz but don’t see him as a charismatic candidate. If he proves he can be, he’ll rise up. If not, he’ll stay second tier.

Freepers don't think Charisma outweighs Competence, but it does.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

Thanks. Good explanation. I would be happy with Governor Walker as President, but I don’t make up my mind until we’re a LOT further in.

Thursday night is going to be interesting!

[LS]

I agree, it’s not good for Cankles. I just don’t want to make the mistake again of “excusing” polls we don’t like. I do think she’s in big trouble, and I think one on one Trump beats her pretty easily.