Nonetheless, his core support, somewhere around 20 percent (plus or minus a couple), remains as solid as that once commanded by Ron Paul and Ross Perot. Which means Trump will likely continue to lead until the field whittles down to a handful, at which point 20 percent is no longer a plurality.
Teflon Don. Solid constituency, fixed ceiling. Chances of winning his party’s nomination? About the same as Sanders winning his.
Sounds about right.
No, VDH (strangely for him) constantly underestimates Trump’s support. First, we’ve had polls with him in the 30s already (Pretty amazing). Second, we have several non-establishment candidates, including the very conservative Cruz, vying for those same voters. Really that wasn’t the case in previous elections. I think, if it comes down to Trump vs. an establishment type, you can pretty much combine most (not all) of Cruz, Carson, and Fiorina’s support behind Trump.