The last Bloomberg Iowa poll, had 40% of respondents had never attended an Iowa Causus.
I'm sure Trump is most popular, whether or not the poll findings transmute into primary results, -- I don't think so.
This reminds me of what had been called the “Bradley effect”, when black candidate Tom Bradley was running for governor of California. Polls showed him winning, but on election day, he lost the election. Pundits at the time attributed this to people being afraid to tell pollsters that they weren’t voting for Bradley, afraid of being perceived as racist.
The same effect has been noted in recent years, when states were still permitted to vote on defining marriage. There too, the results on election day to affirm traditional marriage were far in excess of the percentages of the vote predicted by pollsters. Here too, the punditry said that people were intimidated to say they were voting for traditional marriage, when the politically correct view was that we should allow homosexual marriage.
The real question that would need to be asked is “does the 40% who use landlines still compriae a reasonable cross section of society. If it does then that’s probably enough people from which to get a sample. If not....they better find some new method. Or they can resort to just making up the numbers out of whole cloth the way the government does with number of immigrants, unemployment etc....
Knowing how thuggy our government is toward conservatives (sticking the IRS on us etc) is it any wonder we don't want to give our political feelings to strangers?
Take the polls with a grain of salt... they’re as reliable as an Ouija board forecast.
I don't believe the polls. They're just another tool the GOPe uses to attack Cruz.