[The_Reader_David]

I think this analysis overlooks the fact that cross-over voters and independents in states with open primaries, who have usually backed the RINO, might favor an outsider this time around, probably giving an advantage to Trump and Carson (much to my annoyance as a somewhat reluctant Cruz supporter). Both of them are polling very well among independents and Trump polls well with the union types.

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

cross-over voters and independents in states with open primaries, who have usually backed the RINO, might favor an outsider this time around, probably giving an advantage to Trump and Carson

I could see them going to Trump, but not Carson.

Also, the moonbats may stay in their own primaries, at least in the beginning blue state primaries, when a vote for Bernie will be meaningful.