Functionally, assuming the establishment voting bloc coalesces by then, yes, its no more than a 3 man functional race by then, with reality being a 2 man race with a 3rd just tagging along. Most likely at this point to be that third wheel I would guess to be Cruz.
IF the establishment bloc still hasn’t coalesced by the, The path for anyone but Trump to win becomes insanely narrow indeed.
It appears that the Cruz campaign is seeing some grim internals, judging by the increasingly desperate tone. I think your analysis is spot on.
Initially that second place was Cruz due to his perceived integrity and lack of name recognition. Now the voters have gotten a closer look, and are moving away from him.
I’m evangelical, and don’t tolerate the condescension and shaming used by both the campaign and its followers. The article above points in a similar direction.
The voters expect Trump to be brash - that’s who he is, and the personality we want to have in charge after decades of panzys. Cruz fell for the trap set for him - you can’t claim to be pious while slinging mud. He failed to take the high road, and it will cost him any chance for the nomination.