Posted on 02/19/2016 4:50:16 AM PST by VitacoreVision
Since Donald Trump condemned George W. Bush for the Iraq war in a South Carolina debate, the conventional wisdom has been that Trump hurt himself badly in a state that tends to heavily favor military intervention in general, and George W. Bush specifically.
Indeed, George W. Bush and the Iraq war remain popular in South Carolina. George W. Bush has an 84 percent approval rating there, and been campaigning there for his brother, Jeb.
Trump claims to have opposed the Iraq war all along. Whether or not he actually opposed the war in 2003 remains unclear, although it is clear that he was not a cheerleader for the war. Nor has his criticism of the war been mild in recent days, calling the Iraq war "one of the worst decisions in the history of the country." It would be a mistake to label Trump as an "anti-war" candidate, but for a voter who's gung ho on military action, Trump leaves much to be desired.
If his remarks on the Iraq War have hurt Trump, the damage appears to be too mild to have shown up much in the polls. According to numerous polls, Trump remains the clear frontrunner for Saturday's primary in South Carolina. Nor have his comments stopped Iraq War veterans from endorsing Trump.
If Trump does manage to win in South Carolina, running on an anti-Iraq War, anti-Bush platform, it will be very remarkable. After all, it's hard to blame establishment commentators for assuming that Trump would be crushed by more militarist candidates in a state that tends to be relentlessly in favor of military intervention. South Carolina nearly always favors the most enthusiastically pro-war candidate.
Moreover, the whole region has tended to favor military spending and military action, so while both Rubio and Cruz are running on platforms designed to outdo each other in terms of enthusiasm for more foreign wars, and more military spending, it will noteworthy indeed if Trump does well in the region.
For decades, the south has been an easy base for support for candidates supporting military intervention, and it was the one region of the country where the America First campaign never gained any traction.
This has been especially reinforced since World War II as military spending has become the foundation of many local economies throughout the region.
When we look at military spending compared to a state's overall GDP, we find that Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, and Kentucky are all in the top ten. No other region of the country has local economies so dependent on military spending.
Moreover, countless analyses by political scientists and economists in recent decades have observed the well established connection between military spending in a region, and a proportional support for military action in terms of public policy. In recent contribution on this front was The American Warfare State by Rebecca U. Thorpe. Thorpe's book deserves a review all of its own, but in essence, her finding are this: states where military spending play a more prominent role in the local economy tend to have voters who support more military spending and military action in general.
This is different from saying that "more military spending" leads to more pro-military voting. After all, the total amount of military spending that takes place in California, for example, is immense. The distinction is that California's overall economy is huge and doesn't rely on military spending at all for its local tax revenues or economic core. That's not the story in, say, Mississippi or South Carolina, where military spending is a significant part of the state's overall economy. The initial spending by the federal government supports whole service economies in and around military bases, and also leads to local tax revenues and much more.
It's easy to see how people in these places will inevitably conclude that "what's good for the military is what's good for me." After all, as James Bovard recently explained, governments are adept at buying voter support with taxpayer dollars.
On the other hand, being pro-war isn't necessarily the same thing as being pro-military, although we're often told by interventionists and media pundits that they are inseparable. Trump has perhaps found a way to break through on this issue and win the favor of pro-military voters while simultaneously calling the Republican Party's central project of the last 20 years one of "the worst decisions" ever made.
The Trump supporters I’ve talked to don’t seem to know there was an Iraq war. Or an Iraq even.
Wrong title. The Trumpster works because our government does not! That is the appeal to voters. We can understand a mistake but we are tried of being sold a bill of goods. We have absolutely zero (pun intended) trust in this government.
A survey of where Veterans and their families live might better answer the question being posited.
1. He out performed the Polls
2. The Washington Cartel sent in Haley, Senator Scott and Trey Gowdy
3. Their Army went to Georgia instead of South Carolina.
Most of them are to young to remember.
I don’t think the Iraq war carries the weight it use to. They don’t teach about it at all.
Trump was for the war before he was against it. In fact, he even said that George Bush senior should have finished Saddam. He’s basically held all of the possible positions on Iraq and now is pretending it wasn’t him.
Careful now, your rotten apples will spoil the oranges they are mixed with.
I think a better question is: Could any Republican ever win another national election touting the success of The Bush Doctrine foreign policy?
Personally I think the answer to that question is no, and attempting to do so is what led to 8 years of Obama.
“In fact, he even said that George Bush senior should have finished Saddam.”
EVERYBODY said that at the time; it caused major consternation that Bush pulled back.
Yes, I remember it well too. You do agree, then, that you cannot be in favor of invading after Gulf War I, in favor of invading when we invaded with Gulf War II, against invading after the invasion occurred, and then say honestly that you have always opposed invading, as Trump says he was, can you?
Bingo
Everyone said it back then except Colin Powell
Who has been conspicuously missing from the bush dynasty campaign trail
Trump’s appeal to many in part is his inconsistency. They see it as a positive because it makes him unpredictable and enigmatic, putting his opponents back on their heels.
Pointing out inconsistency just makes Trump supporters love him even more.
Seems crazy, but it’s true.
I agree. In Western logic, contradiction and inconsistency are not valued in an argument. In politics, it’s great since there are people who are not interested in truth.
Trump took those positions to appeal to the crossover democrat voters because this is not a closed primary. He as much as admitted to that when he decided to set up the MSNBC compeditive so called townhall. In one session he was asked by Mika who compared his stance to Sanders and agreed wuth her. He cited his difference claiming he was better and could handle trade issues better than Bernie. And the position Trump took in Iowa on ethanol should have been a signal to everyone as to where he is comming from.
Trump views this race not in political conservative/socialist philosophical terms but as a product marketing. He might have some conservative core values but basically he as Cruz pointed out, is a flatout New York lefty. That does not mean he doesnot love this country or is not concerned with the directions it is being taken. But not the type of guy this country needs right now to get back on its constitutional track. We are too screwed up.
I do not think his tactics are going to work even though it does not seem to be reflected in the polling . And a Iowa repeat will happen. Why ? Because of the highly competitive race on the Democratic side where both candidates are looking for the most votes they can get.
We will know by Sunday if that direction Trump took worked.
More concerned with ISIS.
You seem fairly confused again. Desert Storm in which my son served was not like the Iraq war. Had George HWBush “finished off” Sadam I would have said good as would Trump. With the coalition it would have been possible to not have been as destabilizing as Iraq was the aggressor.
The Iraq war was against a country that at the moment was not being an aggressor and did not have citizens who took down the towers. Biggest mistake was to take out the entire ruling party not just the madman with no clear and immediate replacement.
Two different circumstances can logically support Trump or any easonable person having 2 different opinions.
DT is telling Americans their sacrifice of warriors was dumb and pointless. HIGHLY insulting and seditious and classless.
Okay, I don’t accept the premise, and that’s not really the problem, though. Trump said before the second war that he WAS for it. He was clearly recorded saying this. Now, he says he never was for it. He was against it. That’s the problem. That’s the contradiction. He not only says he was against what he said he was for he says that George W. Bush was lying. Well, is Trump being truthful? I guess you’ll say yes, because even when he contradicts himself it’s okay. Truth isn’t objective. It’s not something we can confirm based on his statements then and now. It’s whatever Trump says it is.
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