Posted on 03/25/2016 5:39:07 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
I agree to a point-—they can’t, and won’t give Kasich the nomination. They will pull a dark horse like Ryan out and insist he’s the “compromise” candidate.
They don’t yet control enough delegates to deny Trump the nomination, especially when you start looking into Carson, the VI, the other dropout candidates. Trump has plenty of cushion.
No, I didn’t say it’s hopeless and no, neither should give up yet. Cruz, well, it will be obvious after one or two more primaries. But Trump could go with 1150 or so and still have a real shot at securing the difference. The reality is, if your vote means a potential job in government or an appointment, you get pretty flexible in a hurry.
I think both Trump and Cruz understand your point. And I’m certain that the GOPe does. Those guys are going to be all in to defeat Trump. If they feel they can pull in Kasich or Romney they will give it a try. But the handwriting is on the wall - the GOPe is backing Cruz. The Bush endorsement is all the proof I need to convince me of that.
So yes, Trump can win on the second ballot but he is up against the combined forces of the well organize Cruz and the powerful GOPe.
No. The GOPe is faking like they back Cruz. They will never support him if it means he wins. He is a placeholder, nothing more.
Why would they fake it? Why would prominent members of the GOPe endorse Cruz if not to head off Trump?
Answering for you (perhaps):
1. Support Cruz to keep Trump from 1237.
2. Turn 1300 Trump and Cruz delegates into (fill in the blank) supporters and steal the nomination from both Trump and Cruz.
Do I have it right this time?
Here’s a surprising source with a more realistic take about what’s involved when moving beyond a first ballot:
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/what-brokered-convention-gop-rules-favor-trump-n535381
#1. They know they op won’t get a fraction of either for #2 and do not care. In their minds, they don’t need them.
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